17 Years Of Failed Protests: Why It's Not Easy To Topple The Iranian Regime | Explained

Last Updated:January 13, 2026, 13:59 IST

According to reports, Iran operates what is arguably the most extensive and effective domestic security apparatus in the world, designed specifically to control its own population

Iran's security doctrine has increasingly shifted towards psychological warfare. (AP)

Iran is boiling over once again. From the streets of Tehran to the mountains of Kurdistan, chants of “Down with dictatorship" are echoing across the country. But this is hardly unfamiliar territory. Over the past 17 years, Iran has repeatedly found itself at this crossroads. Each wave of protests raises the same global question, that is this the moment that finally shakes the foundations of the Islamic Republic?

And yet, each time the unrest subsides, the clerical establishment emerges more entrenched, often more brutal, than before. Today, the same questions are back in the air. What would it actually take to overthrow Iran’s ruling system? How does one recognise a point of no return? And why have so many uprisings ended in failure?

The survival of the Islamic Republic is not accidental but it is the product of a deliberate, deeply entrenched and ruthless strategy. According to a BBC analysis, Iran operates what is arguably the most extensive and effective domestic security apparatus in the world, designed specifically to control its own population.

The Basij and the Revolutionary Guards

The backbone of the regime is not the conventional army, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its paramilitary arm, the Basij. The Basij is not a standard police force. It functions as a vast social network embedded in daily life, where neighbours, shopkeepers or classmates may double up as informants.

Tasked with defending the ideological foundations of the regime, Basij members routinely infiltrate protest crowds in plainclothes, identify organisers and instigate violence. Their loyalty is not to the nation-state but directly to the Supreme Leader, a dynamic that removes any hesitation in turning their weapons on fellow citizens.

Iran’s security doctrine has increasingly shifted towards psychological warfare. Human rights organisations and testimonies from former detainees suggest that the state now prioritises “breaking" dissenters rather than eliminating them outright.

Protesters are often arrested, subjected to severe torture, and then released. The intention is calculated; when a young man returns to his neighbourhood physically and mentally shattered, the message to others is unmistakable. Fear, not martyrdom, becomes the deterrent.

A Vast Surveillance State

Internet shutdowns during unrest have become routine, but Iran’s surveillance extends far beyond blocking access. Thousands of cyber operatives monitor online activity, tracking social media posts, private messages and digital networks. The aim is to extinguish dissent at the earliest stage, before it can gather momentum.

What Would It Take to Topple the Regime?

1. Security force defections: Revolutions succeed only when those holding the guns turn away from power. In Iran’s case, a decisive shift would require defections or mass refusal to fire among the regular army and police. This has not happened. The IRGC and Basij remain fiercely loyal, bolstered by financial privileges and institutional power.

2. Leadership vacuum: Protest movements have consistently lacked a central leadership capable of negotiating with security forces or engaging the international community. In the absence of a clear alternative, many Iranians fear that regime collapse could lead to chaos rather than reform.

3. Economic paralysis: The 1979 revolution succeeded when oil workers and merchants shut down the economy. For similar pressure today, Iran’s economic engine would need to grind to a halt. As long as oil revenues continue to flow into IRGC-controlled channels, repression remains financially sustainable.

17 Years of Unrest

2009: The Green Movement

• Trigger: Disputed presidential election and allegations of vote rigging.
• Outcome: Millions protested nationwide. The movement was crushed, hundreds were killed, and opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were placed under house arrest. The uprising remained largely urban and middle-class.

2017-18: Economic Protests

• Trigger: Inflation, unemployment and corruption.
• Outcome: Protests began in smaller cities and among poorer communities. With no leadership or structure, the unrest was swiftly suppressed.

2019: Bloody November

• Trigger: A sudden 200% hike in fuel prices.
• Outcome: The most violent crackdown to date. Internet access was shut down nationwide. Rights groups estimate more than 1,500 people were killed within days.

2022-23: Death of Mahsa Amini

• Trigger: The death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody.
• Outcome: What began as a protest against compulsory hijab laws evolved into calls for regime change. Women and youth led months of unrest. Over 500 people were killed. The state bent, but did not break.

If the Regime Falls, Then What?

Analysts warn that the aftermath of regime change could be even more volatile. Iran’s opposition is deeply fragmented, spanning monarchists, leftists, the Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), and ethnic minority groups including Kurds, Baloch and Arabs. A sudden power vacuum could trigger violent infighting, as seen in Libya and Syria.

The IRGC is not merely a military force but an economic empire, controlling sectors from oil and construction to telecommunications and banking. Even after a political collapse, it would retain weapons, money and influence, potentially operating as a destabilising parallel power.

Decades of suppressed anger could erupt into revenge attacks against clerics and Basij members, fuelling a new cycle of violence that any transitional government would struggle to contain.

Finally, Iran’s economy which is crippled by sanctions, corruption and mismanagement would take years, if not decades, to rebuild. Public expectations of rapid relief could collide with harsh realities, risking renewed instability.

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