A 'Big Fat Hug' Or Tough Talks With Xi? 5 Key Things Expected From Trump's China Visit

Last Updated:May 12, 2026, 21:59 IST

The visit, Trump’s first to China since returning to White House, comes as Washington struggles to convince Beijing to pressure Iran into accepting US-backed peace terms.

US President Donald Trump is set to arrive in Beijing this week for high-stakes talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with expectations ranging from symbolic bonhomie to tense negotiations over key flashpoints including the Iran war, trade tensions, Taiwan and rare earth supplies.

Ahead of the visit, Trump had joked that he expects a “big, fat hug" from Xi, reviving memories of the warm optics that marked his first state visit to China in 2017. But despite the rhetoric, analysts say the latest meeting comes at a far more difficult moment in US-China relations.

The visit, Trump’s first to China since returning to the White House, comes as Washington struggles to convince Beijing to pressure Iran into accepting US-backed peace terms and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy route blocked by Tehran since the outbreak of the war late February.

Here are the five key issues expected to dominate talks between Trump and Xi during the US president’s high-stakes Beijing visit this week.

1. Iran And Strait Of Hormuz To Dominate Talks

The ongoing Iran war is expected to be one of the biggest issues on the table during the Trump-Xi meeting. The White House has repeatedly pushed China — the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil — to use its leverage over Tehran to stabilise the region.

Trump has alternated between criticising Beijing for not doing enough and acknowledging China’s role in nudging Iran back towards ceasefire talks last month. However, the White House has already lowered expectations ahead of the meeting. Reports suggest the US wants China to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large share of global oil and LNG shipments normally pass.

2. Trade War And Tariffs

Trade tensions remain one of the biggest sticking points between the two countries. Trump and Xi last met face-to-face in last October during a regional summit in South Korea, where both sides agreed to a temporary truce in a tariff war that had seen duties on some goods rise above 100 percent.

3. Rare Earths And Tech Controls

Rare earth exports and technology restrictions are also likely to be high on the agenda. The US has repeatedly expressed concerns over China’s dominance in critical minerals and supply chains, while Beijing has criticised American restrictions on advanced technology exports. The issue has become central to the broader economic rivalry between the two powers.

4. Taiwan And Security Concerns

Taiwan is expected to remain a major geopolitical flashpoint during the discussions. US military assistance and arms sales to Taiwan are expected to remain a key flashpoint. Trump indicated this week that he was open to discussing the issue, while also claiming that his personal relationship with Xi could help prevent conflict over the self-ruled island claimed by Beijing.

5. Limited Expectations Despite Diplomatic Optics

Despite the high-profile nature of the visit, experts told AFP that expectations for major breakthroughs remain modest. Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said stabilisation — rather than dramatic progress — was likely the primary goal for both sides.

Meanwhile, Bert Hofman of the National University of Singapore noted that hopes of “transformative" personal diplomacy between Trump and Xi had faded, though direct engagement could still help “prevent derailment" in ties.

(With inputs from AFP)

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