A drier monsoon is on the way: IMD predicts below-normal rains this year

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted a below-normal monsoon in 2026, expected at 92% of the 50-year average. Deficit rainfall not only disrupts agricultural production but also triggers a ripple effect across rural incomes, inflation, and overall economic growth, highlighting the sector’s continued dependence on the monsoon.

The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5%. Last year in April, it had predicted monsoon to be almost 105% of the long-period average (LPA), while the actual rains were 108% of the LPA.

The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for 1971-2020 was 87 cm. Rainfall of 96-104% of the LPA is considered normal.

Adequate rainfall is crucial for India’s agricultural output, as it boosts the farm economy and strengthens rural demand, thereby benefiting sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and automobiles, and supporting overall economic growth momentum. The southwest monsoon provides more than 70% of the total precipitation that India gets in a year.

However, normal cumulative rainfall does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system.

The monsoon season is vital for India, accounting for nearly 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. However, the agriculture sector remains highly susceptible to weather fluctuations, as only about 55% of the net sown area is irrigated, with the remainder dependent on monsoon rains.

A large share of agricultural land depends on rain-fed systems, making it highly vulnerable to variations in rainfall. In such conditions, an above-normal monsoon is likely to support higher sowing of kharif crops such as rice, pulses, maize and soybean.

“A decline in rainfall is likely to negatively impact agricultural productivity, raising concerns over crop yields and farm incomes across the country,” said Prof. Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.

According to Economic Survey 2025-26, the agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.1% in fiscal year 2026 (FY26), aided by a favourable monsoon in the first half of the fiscal year. Agricultural GVA rose by 3.6% in H1 FY26, compared with 2.7% in the corresponding period of FY25, indicating improved crop performance. Meanwhile, allied activities, particularly livestock and fisheries, have maintained steady growth of around 5–6%, underscoring their role in providing resilience and diversification, and reflecting stable expansion in these segments.

However, the temporal distribution of rainfall remains a major monitorable. Any excessive rainfall during critical stages of the crop cycle, such as sowing, maturation, and harvesting, may cause crop damage and yield losses, particularly for crops like pulses, cotton, and maize.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), during its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held from 6 to 8 April, said that Food price outlook remains comfortable in the near term with robust rabi production, adequate reservoir levels and comfortable buffer stocks of foodgrains. "The likely emergence of El Niño conditions could pose a risk," it expressed concern. Considering all these factors, CPI inflation for 2026-27 is projected at 4.6% with Q1 at 4%, Q2 at 4.4%, Q3 at 5.2%; and Q4 at 4.7%. Core inflation is projected at 4.4 per cent, according to RBI.

In a separate update, private weather forecasting agency Skymet on 7 April, projected a ‘below normal’ southwest monsoon for 2026, estimating seasonal rainfall at 94% (±5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June–September period. The private forecaster said the expected rainfall falls within the “below normal” range of 90–95% of LPA, reiterating its earlier outlook issued in January that flagged a subpar monsoon for the year.

The foodgrain stock is at comfortable position this year compared to corresponding period of previous year. The total stocks of rice and wheat held by FCI and State agencies as on 28 February 2026 was 60.09 million tonnes (MT) comprising 36.47 mt of rice and 23.62 mt of wheat, much above the foodgrain stocking norms. The stocking norm for rice stood at 7.6 mt. while that for wheat was set at 13.8 mt. Compared to this year, the combined stock of wheat and rice stood at 50.19 mt on 28 February 2025, including 36.79 mt of rice and 13.40 mt of wheat.