A war that’s redrawing the world’s fault lines

The week began with rumours that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was missing, possibly dead, sparked by his absence from public view. Israel later released videos showing him ordering coffee, speaking with Israeli Defence Force commanders, and, later in the week, discussing a potential “boots on the ground” operation in Iran.

Questions about the videos’ authenticity arose after Grok, the artificial intelligence (AI) assistant from X., flagged some as suspicious. ”The back-and-forth was the latest demonstration of one of the dangers that AI technology has posed to global affairs: Not only can AI fakery deceive millions online, but real videos can also be dismissed as AI-generated lies,” a New York Times report said. The phenomenon, known as the “liar’s dividend,” has proliferated during the current West Asia conflict, with thousands of videos leaving watchers unable to tell the difference.

As far as can be verified, Netanyahu appears hale and hearty.

Meanwhile, Israel assassinated two top Iranians: Ali Larijani, a former nuclear negotiator and secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force.

“We could have dialogue, but I don’t want to do a ceasefire,” Trump said from the White House South Lawn before departing for Florida, CNBC reported. “You know you don’t do a ceasefire when you’re literally obliterating the other side.” Later, on Truth Social, he said the US was “getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East.”

So is there an end in sight? Unclear. Israel and the Gulf States are unlikely to let Trump step back easily, given Iran’s resilience and potential to inflict damage. The Straits of Hormuz remain closed.

The tit-for-tat strikes have sent energy prices spiralling, prompting the US to lift sanctions on some Iranian oil stranded at sea. “The move marks a stunning reversal of longstanding American policy—and one with highly uncertain pay-off,” the BBC said.

Iran also targeted Saudi Arabia’s main port on the Red Sea, diverting some exports to bypass the Gulf’s exit point. Early Saturday, 21 March, reports emerged of Iran attempting to strike the US-British base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. One missile failed; a second was intercepted by an SM-3 fired from a US warship, according to two people cited by the Wall Street Journal. These incidents suggest Iran may possess longer-range missiles and a willingness to widen the war’s scope.

Trump also embarrassed a White House guest, Japan’s Sanae Takaichi, by referencing the 1941 Pearl Harbour attack when asked why the US had not warned allies about a strike on Iran on 28 February. “Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbor?” he reportedly asked, leaving Takaichi visibly startled.

Despite the awkward moment, the visit concluded with announcements of expanded cooperation, including Japanese investment of up to $73 billion in US businesses as part of $550 billion worth of investment commitments announced last year. Projects include the development of small modular reactors in Tennessee and Alabama and an action plan to develop alternatives to China for critical minerals and rare earth elements.

The South China Morning Post noted that Beijing had grown wary of the summit due to “growing frustrations, mismatched expectations, unanswered proposals and a distracted Trump administration, all compounded by geopolitical crosswinds.”

It was clear that the October meeting in South Korea between Trump and Xi was only a truce announcement, with negotiations meant to follow. Talks in December and January, however, began losing steam, according to various news reports. Draft proposals sent by Beijing did not elicit a response from Washington, leaving the Chinese side “puzzled by the lack of engagement,” the SCMP said. A working group on investment appeared to have quietly faded, signalling narrowing ambitions amid political sensitivity over doing business with China.

China had sought more US investment to counter domestic stagnation, circumvent tariffs and blunt technological isolation, even as Chinese companies faced growing scrutiny in the US. Proposed dates for the visit also became a sticking point, with the US pushing for 31 March–2 April and China preferring late April or early May to allow more preparation and avoid domestic scheduling conflicts.

With expectations already lowered, the Iran conflict may have provided a convenient reason for both sides to defer the meeting.

Elizabeth Roche is associate professor of practice at O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.