AI and jobs: Anthropic study identifies which jobs face AI risk — and which remain largely safe

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Anthropic’s research aims to track AI’s effects at an early stage, highlighting potential risks so that policymakers and businesses can act proactively. To support this, they developed a metric called observed exposure, which measures how susceptible different jobs are to AI disruption.

Figurines with computers and smartphones are seen in front of the words Artificial Intelligence AI in this illustration created on February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Anthropic’s research introduces observed exposure, a new measure of AI displacement risk (FILE PHOTO: Figurines with computers and smartphones are seen in front of the words Artificial Intelligence AI in this illustration created on February 19, 2024. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo(REUTERS)

AI adoption is accelerating, and there is growing concern about job displacement. AI is transforming work across industries, but its effects are uneven. While certain roles may face significant disruption, many others remain relatively safe from automation. Knowing which jobs are at risk can help workers, employers, and policymakers plan ahead.

Anthropic’s research seeks to monitor AI’s impact early, identifying potential risks before major changes occur, allowing policymakers and businesses to respond proactively.

To support this, they developed a metric called observed exposure, which measures how susceptible different jobs are to AI disruption.

Jobs least exposed to AI

Certain roles are difficult for AI to replace because they involve:

-Hands-on human work

-Critical thinking and judgment

-Emergency decision-making

-Care for vulnerable people

-Emotional intelligence

-Adapting to unpredictable conditions

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Share of job tasks that LLMs could theoretically perform (blue area) and our own job coverage measure derived from usage data (red area). (Credit: https://www.anthropic.com/research/labor-market-impacts)

The occupations with minimal blue or red coverage in Anthropic’s research are the safest from AI.

Characteristics of high-risk jobs

Jobs most at risk of AI disruption tend to:

-Be repetitive and routine

-Be knowledge-based and document-driven (often white-collar)

-Depend heavily on computers and software

Eight job categories least at risk

Based on Anthropic’s findings, the following job categories are least affected by AI, most of which are blue-collar roles:

-Construction workers

Examples: Carpenter, Electrician, Plumber

-Installation and repair technicians

Examples: HVAC Technician, Elevator Installer/Repairer, Radiology Technician, Solar Panel Installer/Repairer

-Agriculture workers

Examples: Equipment Operator, Crop Manager/Farmer, Irrigation Technician

-Production workers

Examples: Quality Control Manager, Production Operations Manager

-Transportation workers

Examples: Truck Driver, Bus Driver, Delivery Driver, Freight Logistics Manager

-Grounds maintenance workers

Examples: Landscaper/Horticulturalist, Golf Course Maintenance Worker

-Personal Care Workers

Examples: Home Health Aide, Personal Care Assistant/Nurse, Disability Support Worker, Childcare Provider, Social Worker

-Food and Serving workers

Examples: Bartender, Barista, Catering Staff, Chef

Why these jobs are safer

-They require hands-on skills that AI cannot replicate.

-They depend on human judgment and emotional intelligence.

-Many involve dynamic environments where AI cannot reliably operate.

Jobs in these eight categories are less likely to be fully automated now or in the near future.

Key Takeaways

Hands-on skills and emotional intelligence protect certain jobs from AI.
Jobs that involve critical thinking and human interaction remain safer from automation.
Understanding AI's impact allows workers and policymakers to strategize for the future.

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