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Colorado State University forecasts a below-average 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 storms, six hurricanes, and two major ones. El Niño is expected to reduce storm activity by increasing wind shear, though conditions may still allow some storms to develop.
The Atlantic hurricane season commences from 1 June and lasts typically till 30 November, with the peak of the season being witnessed between August and October.(AFP)Weather forecasters from Colorado State University on Thursday (local time) said the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to fall below historical averages due to an El Niño formation sending winds across the southern US that could rip apart tropical storms, Reuters reported.
In a statement, the university said, “While the intensity of the likely El Niño is uncertain, the CSU team anticipates that a moderate to strong El Niño is most likely by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August–October.”
The Atlantic hurricane season commences from 1 June and lasts typically till 30 November, with the peak of the season being witnessed between August and October.
13 tropical storms expected
The closely watched Colorado State forecast predicts that in 2026, there will be 13 named tropical storms, including six hurricanes, two of which are expected to become major hurricanes with wind speeds exceeding 111 mph (179 kph).
By comparison, the average hurricane season from 1991 to 2020 produced 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Storm development may be limited by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, warmer-than-normal waters in the western tropical Atlantic could support storm formation.
In 2025, there were 13 named storms and five hurricanes, with four reaching major hurricane status. That season caused more than $9 billion in damage and resulted in 126 deaths.
Hurricane season forecast to be updated
According to CBS News, the weather forecasters' team acknowledged that their April forecast is preliminary and will be updated once the hurricane season is underway. Even so, the early prediction is closely watched each year by officials and residents in hurricane-prone regions, particularly Florida and states along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard, as they prepare for the potential impacts ahead.
Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the forecast, said, "We always recommend coastal residents to prepare the same way for every season," and added, "Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what's coming in the next couple of months."
Hurricane activity to dip about 75% of long-term seasonal average
Hurricane activity in 2026 is expected to see a 75% dip from the long-term seasonal average, the forecast predicts. If accurate, this would represent a slight decrease from last year’s hurricane season, which saw 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and four major hurricanes, though none made direct landfall in the country. By comparison, federal data indicate that an average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Shift in atmospheric conditions likely
The main reason behind the below-average hurricane forecast of the researchers is an expected shift in atmospheric conditions that can either encourage or suppress storm development, according to Colón-Burgos.
The important factor is the expected arrival of El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, this summer. This climate pattern, marked by changes in sea surface temperatures and rainfall in the Pacific Ocean, influences weather across the United States and often signals how active a hurricane season may be.
During El Niño, Atlantic hurricanes are typically less frequent and less intense.
The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August and persist through at least the end of 2026. Forecasters expect it to be fully established and possibly strong during the peak of this year’s hurricane season.
About the Author
Swati Gandhi
Swati Gandhi is a digital journalist with over four years of experience, specialising in international and geopolitical issues. Her work focuses on foreign policy, global power shifts, and the political and economic forces shaping international relations, with a particular emphasis on how global developments affect India. She approaches journalism with a strong belief in context-driven reporting, aiming to break down complex global events into clear, accessible narratives for a wide readership.<br><br> Previously, Swati has worked at Business Standard, where she covered a range of beats including national affairs, politics, and business. This diverse newsroom experience helped her build a strong grounding in reporting, while also strengthening her ability to work across both breaking news and in-depth explanatory stories. Covering multiple beats early in her career has helped her be informed about her current work, allowing her to connect domestic developments with wider international trends.<br><br> At Live Mint, she focuses on international and geopolitical issues through a business and economic lens, examining how global political developments, foreign policy decisions, and power shifts impact markets, industries, and India’s strategic and economic interests.<br><br> She holds a Bachelor’s degree in English (Honours) from the University of Delhi and a Master’s degree in Journalism and Mass Communication from Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University. Her academic training has shaped her emphasis on precision, analytical rigour, and clarity in writing. Her interests include global political economy and the intersection of geopolitics with business.<br><br> Outside work, Swati focuses on exploring her passion and love for food. From fancy cafes to street spots, Swati explores food like a true foodie.
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