Blue state turning red? America’s Democrats could end up losing the governor’s race in California

At issue are California’s unusual primary election rules. In June, all gubernatorial candidates will appear on the same ballot, regardless of party, and the two candidates who get the highest percentages of the vote will advance to a runoff election in November.

Right now, there are so many Democrats running—most of them with names voters don’t recognize—that they’re splitting the state’s electorate. And that has given an unexpected boost to the two Republicans in the race.

A poll conducted by Emerson College in early December found that more than 30% of voters remain undecided. Among Democrats, US Representative Eric Swalwell, who recently entered the race, had support from 12% of voters, followed by former US Representative Katie Porter at 11%.

Also running—and polling in lower single digits—are California Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee and former state legislative leader Ian Calderon. More Democrats are considering entering the race too, including San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.

Among Republicans, Steve Hilton, a Fox News contributor and former adviser to British conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, was polling at 12% last month, according to Emerson. Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County in Southern California, was in the lead at 13%.

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Trump is so unpopular in California that his approval rating is just 29% among likely voters, according to the non-partisan Public Policy Institute of California. Nevertheless Bianco, in particular, has been unabashed about his support for MAGA and the American president, seemingly not worried about turning off the majority of voters in the state who don’t agree. Hilton is more reserved, but still backs policies that are well to the right of most voters in California.

If the Democratic Party doesn’t do more to consolidate the race for governor—if not by recruiting more high-profile candidates, then by getting lower-profile candidates to drop out—it may face an unthinkable fate in November. ©Bloomberg

The author is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion.