Can Iran Fight A Long War? Tehran's Ballistic Missile Capacity At 10%, Drone Warfare Hit

Last Updated:March 20, 2026, 10:05 IST

A major phase of the campaign — codenamed Operation Rising Lion — reportedly focused on dismantling Iran’s military-industrial backbone.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared that Iran’s strategic military capabilities have been “decimated," as a sustained US–Israeli air and missile campaign batters the country’s missile forces, drone infrastructure, air defences, and nuclear facilities. According to top intelligence sources, the scale and precision of the strikes have sharply reduced Tehran’s ability to mount sustained long-range attacks, even though limited short-term launches remain possible.

Before the conflict escalated, Iran was estimated to possess between 410 and 500 ballistic missile launchers. Intelligence sources now indicate that roughly three-quarters of those systems have been destroyed or rendered inoperable through precision strikes on both mobile and fixed launch sites. Only about 100–180 launchers are believed to remain functional, drastically constraining Iran’s capacity to mount large missile barrages.

Missile stockpiles and firing rates show similar degradation. Pre-war inventories were estimated at 2,500–3,000 ballistic missiles. Since hostilities intensified, more than 500 missiles have been fired, while hundreds more were destroyed on the ground in targeted raids. Intelligence sources say launch rates have collapsed by roughly 90–92 per cent compared to the opening days of the war. Overall, Iran’s ballistic missile capacity is now assessed at just 8–10 per cent of its pre-war strength, making sustained mass attacks operationally unsustainable.

Drone warfare capabilities have also been severely eroded. Iran was believed to hold drone stockpiles in the thousands before the war. More than 2,000 drones have since been expended, with launch rates falling between 83 per cent and 95 per cent. Airbases and command centres supporting drone operations have suffered heavy damage, forcing a shift towards lower-volume deployments using simpler, less capable models.

A major phase of the campaign — codenamed Operation Rising Lion — reportedly focused on dismantling Iran’s military-industrial backbone. Missile and drone production lines, component factories, storage depots, and associated supply chains were systematically targeted. Intelligence sources say key industrial sites manufacturing missiles, drones, and critical components have been largely wiped out, severely undermining Tehran’s ability to regenerate its arsenal.

Strikes also extended to nuclear infrastructure. Facilities at Natanz and Fordow reportedly suffered extensive damage to centrifuges, power systems, and operational halls. Enrichment capacity is described as effectively crippled, with above-ground and access infrastructure heavily ruined. Additional hits were reported at the Isfahan uranium conversion complex and the Taleghan testing site. Related components tied to nuclear weapons development were also targeted alongside missile industries, a move intelligence sources say could delay any reconstitution efforts by years.

Iran’s broader defence posture has weakened in parallel. Air defence networks are assessed to be 80–85 per cent degraded, while elements of the command structure and naval capabilities are described as largely ineffective.

Despite the damage, intelligence assessments caution that Iran retains a limited ability to conduct small-scale, short-term launches. However, with industrial capacity shattered, stockpiles depleted, and infrastructure in ruins, the country’s ability to sustain prolonged military pressure — or rapidly rebuild — faces formidable obstacles. Leadership losses and systemic disruption are expected to compound those long-term challenges, leaving Iran’s strategic threat profile significantly diminished for the foreseeable future, according to top intelligence sources.

News world Can Iran Fight A Long War? Tehran's Ballistic Missile Capacity At 10%, Drone Warfare Hit

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