Can US Control Strait Of Hormuz? Trump's Bold Gamble Risks Wider Regional Conflict

Last Updated:April 13, 2026, 10:49 IST

Trump's decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz has sparked concerns of drawing the US into a prolonged conflict with Iran that has wreaked havoc on the global economy.

US President Donald Trump has raised the stakes in the ongoing war in West Asia by declaring that the US Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz, potentially drawing American forces into a prolonged struggle to control the strategic chokepoint that has raised fears of widespread global economic damage.

Hours after US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed, Trump said the US Navy would blockade the vital waterway and stop vessels that have paid a toll to Iran from entering or exiting the strait, along with clearing the path of sea mines. Trump also said that any Iranian forces that fired on US troops or commercial ships would be “blown to Hell."

The blockade announcement triggered an immediate reaction in crude markets, with oil prices jumping above $100 per barrel amid fears of supply disruption. WTI crude oil futures were trading around $104.25 per barrel on Monday morning, while Brent crude traded near $101 per barrel.

Trump’s Rationale For Blockading Hormuz

Trump’s move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is aimed at reducing Iran’s strategic leverage in the conflict by targeting ships entering or exiting Iranian ports. Since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, Tehran blocked the strait and imposed a toll on vessels transiting the waterway, choking energy supplies and causing a spike in fuel prices.

The Strait of Hormuz typically handles 20% of global oil shipments, making it a critical artery for international energy markets. The US-Israeli attacks and Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf neighbours brought shipping through the route to a virtual halt.

READ MORE: What’s Next As Trump Faces Tough Military, Diplomatic Choices After Iran Talks Fail In Islamabad

US Central Command said the blockade would apply to vessels destined for Iranian ports, while ships travelling between non-Iranian ports would still be allowed to transit the waterway. This came after high-level talks between US and Iranian officials in Pakistan ended without an agreement, leaving uncertainty over the future of a fragile ceasefire due to expire on April 22.

Trump accused Iran of going back on its assurance to keep the key international waterway open. He said that while the talks in Islamabad were friendly, Tehran has been unwilling to abandon its nuclear programme or halt uranium enrichment.

Can US Control The Strait Of Hormuz?

The failure of US-Iran talks in Islamabad has left Washington with little options on whether to escalate the military campaign against Tehran, or manage the economic fallout of ongoing tensions in West Asia. The deadlock has raised fears of wider global economic damage and attacks on regional infrastructure.

While the US military has the resources and the capabilities to execute such a blockade, current and former US officials and analysts have warned that sustaining control of the strategic waterway in the long term could be far more difficult.

“It’s certainly well within the capacity of the forces that are there to mount a blockade," Bryan Clark, a retired naval officer and senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, told the Wall Street Journal. “Now, if Iran starts shooting at them or shooting at people that are operating these systems, then obviously it gets more difficult. You have to protect them with ships."

Defence officials in Washington said that the blockade may allow time for the US Navy to sweep mines and establish a protected passage for commercial shipping, but any renewed Iranian attacks would quickly complicate the mission.

Trump’s Move Risks Wider Conflict

Trump’s decision to blockade the strait has also opened up a volatile new phase in the six-week conflict that would test the resilience of Iran as well as global markets. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have already warned that any hostile move in the Strait of Hormuz could trap adversaries in a “deadly vortex," highlighting the possibility of retaliation if tensions escalate further.

This threat has significant implications, as the Strait of Hormuz is exposed to Iran’s coastline, and any operations there will remain vulnerable to mines, drones and attack boats. Additionally, while Trump has repeatedly stressed that Iran’s navy and air force have been decimated, over 60% of Iran’s fast-attack craft and speedboat vessels remain intact and continue to pose a threat under the control of the IRGC.

Mark Montgomery, a retired US Navy rear admiral, told WSJ that the US could carry out an effective operation if it did not stop every vessel, but just enough to scare off shadow-fleet operators. However, it is uncertain whether the US could manage this alone. Trump has said “numerous countries" would join the blockade, but it has faced resistance from the United Kingdom.

Despite relentless strikes, Iran has cushioned the economic impact of the war by successfully shipping its crude oil, and managing to retain leverage against the global economy. If cornered by the US, Tehran could cripple the Gulf’s fallback options by striking Saudi and UAE pipelines, while its regional proxies could attempt to close the critical Bab al-Mandeb shipping route off Yemen.

Impact On Global Markets

The most visible impact of the conflict has been on energy prices, with Gulf factories reducing production to save energy and rationing fuel. As oil prices continue to rise, several airports across Asia and Europe are starting to run out of jet fuel, and airlines have started to impose a fuel surcharge.

Even if the ceasefire was announced, it could take months for fuel production to recover from the impact of the conflict. For countries in the Gulf, the economic damage is among the worst in decades, particularly Qatar, the world’s largest LNG producer, whose GDP is estimated to shrink by 13% this year.

READ MORE: ‘Don’t Care If Iran Returns To Talks’: Trump Signals Pressure On Hormuz, Questions NATO

The blockade could lead to widespread supply chains for the oil market, threatening to drive prices sharply higher. If the US successfully blocks Iranian crude exports, it would hit an already battered economy and disrupt the global balance of an additional roughly 2 million barrels a day in the region.

Military Options For US

At the beginning of the conflict, the United States deployed roughly eight guided-missile destroyers in the region. These destroyers could be used to control or restrict the movement of oil tankers attempting to exit the Gulf, as well as to intercept aerial threats targeting US ships.

However, the confined geography of the Gulf would leave US warships with less reaction time against potential Iranian threats. The US military could also enlist the assistance of the Coast Guard or special operations forces to support operations such as seizing tankers.

Furthermore, the US could also wait to board ships until they entered other bodies of water, rather than seize tankers in West Asia. The Pentagon showed its willingness to hunt down tankers in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean this year when it took control of ships that had fled Trump’s blockade of Venezuela.

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