Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic prediction: Who’ll win Australian Open 2026 final? Head-to-head, AI analysis and more

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic reached the Australian Open 2026 final after dramatic semifinal wins. The clash between the world number 1 and the most decorated Grand Slam champion will take place today, 1 February. The match starts at 2 PM (India time).

Alcaraz has looked the strongest player throughout the tournament. The 22-year-old won 15 straight sets before being pushed to 5 sets by Alexander Zverev in a gruelling semifinal.

Even after losing 2 tight tiebreakers, Alcaraz stayed calm and broke serve in the deciding set to close the match.

Djokovic’s route to the final was unusual. He moved quickly through early rounds, received a walkover after Jakub Mensik withdrew and benefited when Lorenzo Musetti retired while leading in the quarterfinals.

However, Djokovic fully earned his place in the final by beating Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. Despite losing the first set and trailing again later, Djokovic fought back with experience and belief.

On hard courts, Djokovic has a clear numerical edge, leading 3–1. Alcaraz’s lone hard-court victory came at the 2025 US Open semifinal.

Djokovic’s hard-court wins include the 2025 Australian Open quarterfinal, the 2023 Cincinnati Masters final and the 2023 Nitto ATP Finals semifinal.

On grass, Alcaraz dominates the matchup 2–0. He has defeated Djokovic in the Wimbledon finals of both 2023 and 2024.

On clay, the head-to-head is evenly split at 1–1. Djokovic won their Roland Garros 2023 semifinal while Alcaraz prevailed in the Madrid Masters 2022 semifinal. In the finals, the record is level at 2–2.

In 2022, he progressed to the 3rd round and pushed Matteo Berrettini to 5 sets in a close defeat. Alcaraz missed the 2023 tournament after withdrawing with a leg injury.

His performances improved in 2024, when he reached the quarterfinals but lost to Alexander Zverev in 4 sets. In 2025, he again made the quarterfinals, this time losing a long 4-set match to Novak Djokovic that lasted over 3.5 hours.

The 2026 Australian Open marks his best run so far. Alcaraz reached his first final in Melbourne after beating Zverev in a marathon semifinal that lasted 5 hours and 27 minutes.

The 38-year-old first appeared at the tournament in 2005, losing in the opening round. He won his first title in 2008, which was also his first Grand Slam victory.

Between 2011 and 2016, Djokovic dominated in Melbourne, winning 6 titles. He defeated rivals such as Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal in multiple finals.

His 2012 final win over Nadal, lasting 5 hours and 53 minutes, remains the longest Grand Slam final in history. He continued his success with further titles in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2023. He has won the Australian Open titles 10 times, more than any other player.

Djokovic missed the 2022 edition due to visa and vaccination issues. In 2024, he suffered his first-ever defeat in an Australian Open semi-final.

After retiring injured in the 2025 semi-final, he returned strongly in 2026, reaching the final again. At 38, Novak Djokovic became the oldest Australian Open finalist.

“Against a relentless mover like Alcaraz, any drop in intensity or speed could be costly for Novak Djokovic, who has had an uneven road to the final. Expect a long, high-quality final. If it goes five sets, Alcaraz’s energy and shot-making give him a slight edge,” the AI chatbot predicts.

Grok predicts, “The match will likely be epic and close. Expect long rallies, momentum swings, and high drama. But, Djokovic's experience, Rod Laver Arena aura, and ability to grind out big points give him the edge. Alcaraz's fatigue could show in a prolonged battle.”

“I believe Novak Djokovic will win in four or five sets,” it adds.

Even Google Gemini leans towards Djokovic: “You never bet against Novak Djokovic in a Melbourne final. He is 10–0 in championship matches here. Having finally broken his losing streak against Sinner in the semis, he looks mentally liberated and physically sharp enough to prove that ‘38 is the new 28’.”

“My Final Verdict: While Alcaraz is the betting favourite, Novak Djokovic is my pick to win in four tight sets,” the AI bot predicts.