Centre sets 15 June as cut-off date to decide new playbook to contain inflation due to fuel price hike, monsoon concerns

At the same time, concerns over El Niño have raised fears of uneven rainfall and possible disruptions in agricultural output.

“There is enough stock of foodgrains, and, in case low rainfall leads to pressure on food prices, the government would take calibrated measures to contain inflation and ensure adequate availability of essential commodities,” said the first person. “These measures could include releasing buffer stocks of rice, wheat, and pulses into the market, and imposing stock limits to prevent hoarding, among others.”

Queries sent to the ministries of consumer affairs, food and public distribution and agriculture and farmers' welfare remained unanswered till press time.

The government is also monitoring the global situation, particularly the sowing season in its trading partner countries for pulses such as chana and tur.

According to the Food Grain Bulletin for April 2026 released by the Department of Food and Public Distribution, the total stock of rice and wheat held by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies stood at 81.75 million tonnes as on 1 May. This included 38.95 million tonnes of rice and 42.79 million tonnes of wheat.

The ministries of consumer affairs and agriculture are taking regular feedback from the India Meteorological Department, with monitoring being carried out from regional levels down to district and panchayat levels to track rainfall patterns, sowing progress, and crop conditions ahead of the kharif season.

“We are keeping a close watch and are in regular touch with the IMD and other concerned departments. There is a possibility of an El Niño impact, but it is not for India alone. It will affect the entire world,” said the second person.

“If the distribution of rainfall is uniform across the regions producing major foodgrains such as rice, pulses, and other horticultural crops, there will be no major cause for concern,” this person said.

El Niño refers to a climate phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal. El Niño can affect weather patterns across the world. In India, it is closely watched because it is often linked to weaker monsoon rainfall, higher temperatures, and possible pressure on agriculture and food prices.

However, experts believe that an El Niño year does not always mean drought in India, and the actual impact depends on factors such as rainfall distribution, ocean conditions, and regional weather systems.

The IMD has projected that the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall is likely to be around 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which falls in the below normal category. The LPA for the June-September monsoon season is 87 cm.

“The formation of El Niño has started, and it is likely to show its impact from August-September onwards. By then, most of the sowing would be completed, and reservoirs would have been recharged. Also, in rain-fed areas, irrigation is largely carried out through tube wells and other sources such as monsoon-fed rivers,” said K.J. Ramesh, former director general, IMD.

“That said, if groundwater levels are adequately recharged, there may not be major irrigation issues, resulting in a limited impact on foodgrain productivity,” said Ramesh.

According to the ministry of jal shakti, the country’s total annual groundwater recharge in 2025 was estimated at 448.52 billion cubic metres (BCM), while annual extraction stood significantly lower at 247.22 BCM, indicating sufficient groundwater availability for irrigation and other uses.

“The change in the characteristics of the monsoon may continue to bring rainfall to areas of Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, while parts of central India may face water shortages. However, since there are enough reservoirs, the situation is unlikely to become a major concern,” he said.