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China has announced that US President Donald Trump will make a state visit from May 13 to 15, the Xinhua official news agency said. When US President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping sit down in Beijing on Thursday (14 May), the agenda stretching from Taiwan and trade to rare earths and artificial intelligence will carry consequences far beyond the two nations in the room. Here is what is at stake, and for whom.
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: Taiwan, Trade, Rare Earths and the Issues That Could Reshape the Global Order
The Trump-Xi summit in Beijing this Thursday is shaping up to be one of the most consequential diplomatic meetings in recent memory. The two leaders and their delegations are expected to work through a sweeping agenda that spans trade, technology, rare earth export controls, Taiwan, the Iran war and artificial intelligence, with outcomes that could reverberate across economies and governments from Tokyo to Brussels to Moscow.
"Virtually everyone has a stake in the outcome of this meeting," said Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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The summit agenda includes critical issues such as Taiwan, trade, rare earth export controls, artificial intelligence, and the Iran war. These discussions carry significant consequences for global economies and international relations.
Taiwan is considered the biggest risk in the bilateral relationship. China claims Taiwan as its territory and has pressed the US to scale back security commitments, while the US has expressed concerns about destabilizing actions in the region.
China's actions on rare earths and semiconductors have already disrupted global supply chains. The summit's outcomes on trade, tariffs, and potential energy deals could further influence global commodity prices and market share for countries like Japan and Europe.
China seeks predictability in US tariffs and aims to ease US restrictions on investments. They are also pushing for a change in the US stance and language regarding Taiwan.
The international community hopes the summit will ease trade tensions between the US and China, which have led to China exporting goods at low rates to other markets. There is also hope for an agreement on the West Asian crisis and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The meeting, originally scheduled for March, was delayed after Washington became embroiled in its war against Iran, which has triggered what analysts have described as the world's most severe energy shock in history. Trump has since signalled his intention for Xi to visit Washington later this year, which would mark the Chinese leader's first trip to the US capital in a decade.
What Is on the Table at the Beijing Summit
The breadth of the agenda reflects just how much has accumulated between the two powers in recent months. In the lead-up to the summit, both sides have been intensifying pressure on multiple fronts. Washington has accused Beijing of running what it describes as "industrial-scale" campaigns to steal American artificial intelligence technology. China, for its part, ordered companies not to comply with US sanctions on Iranian oil and hosted Iran's foreign minister for a high-profile visit.
China's decision to suspend exports of a wide range of rare earths and related magnets, and its ban on semiconductors from Nexperia China, has already upended supply chains central to global automakers, with political and economic consequences rippling across Europe, Japan and South Korea.
The week is expected to be eventful even before the leaders meet. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are scheduled to meet in South Korea on Wednesday to discuss economic and trade issues ahead of the Beijing summit.
Gabriel Wildau, managing director at political risk advisory Teneo, said those discussions may seek to ensure that recent escalations, including US sanctions on Chinese refiners buying Iranian crude and Beijing's countermeasures in response, do not derail a trade truce reached in South Korea last year.
Taiwan: The Issue Both Sides Call the Biggest Risk
Taiwan is expected to sit at the top of the agenda, with both the US and China having said so explicitly in recent weeks.
Beijing has reportedly pressed the Trump administration to scale back its security commitments to the island and revise official US policy toward it. China claims the democratically governed island as its own territory, a claim Taiwan rejects, and has long criticised US arms sales to Taipei.
In a call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 30 April, China's top diplomat Wang Yi described Taiwan as "the biggest point of risk" in the bilateral relationship, urging Washington to "keep its promise and make the right choices to open up new space for China-US cooperation."
"Both countries understand that it is in neither one of our interests to see anything destabilizing happen in that part of the world," Wang Yi said.
Analysts warn that even ambiguous signals from Trump on Taiwan could carry serious consequences. Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said any rhetorical softening, even if vague, would be "the most destabilizing outcome" of the summit.
"A tacit or explicit bargain in which Washington appears to concede a sphere of influence to Beijing over Taiwan" in exchange for concessions elsewhere could embolden China to take more assertive steps to erode Taiwan's autonomy, Glaser said.
Southeast Asia Watches the Strait of Hormuz and Tariff Shifts
Governments across Southeast Asia will be monitoring the summit closely, particularly for any dramatic shift in US tariffs on Chinese goods relative to those applied to their own exports.
"If tariff levels on Chinese exports drop, the business rationale for moving production from China to countries like Vietnam will also drop," said Stephen Olson, senior visiting fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
The Strait of Hormuz is an equally pressing concern for the region. Southeast Asian nations are heavily reliant on Gulf oil and have borne a significant share of the energy shock triggered by the Middle East conflict. Singapore officials have repeatedly warned of the economic toll and called for free passage through the Strait.
Should Trump and Xi reach an agreement on a joint effort to reopen the strait, it could provide near-term relief from the energy crunch, though analysts caution that such an outcome remains uncertain.
Japan and Europe Could Lose Out Even if the Summit Succeeds
For Brussels and Tokyo, a successful summit may paradoxically bring its own complications. A potential energy deal in which Beijing agrees to purchase more US oil and natural gas could push global commodity prices higher, said Matt Gertken, chief strategist at BCA Research. Any progress on trade, including Chinese commitments to direct investment into the US economy, could displace Japanese and European market share, he added.
Russia Is Watching Beijing Closely
The summit will also be followed with particular attention in Moscow, where Chinese support has become an increasingly important factor in Russia's strategic calculations. The last in-person Trump-Xi meeting, held in October, prompted Russian officials to move swiftly to reaffirm Moscow's alliance with Beijing.
"Russia would be nervous about an overall improvement in US-China relations," CNBC quoted Dennis Wilder, a former US intelligence official and professor at Georgetown University.
Wilder said it is possible that one outcome of the summit could be a reduction in China's support for Russia's war effort in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Beijing the following week, just days after Trump's departure.
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