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Polymarket, a popular prediction market page, has taken down a forum linked to the rescue mission of US servicemembers amid political backlash. Democratic Congressman Seth Moulton slammed the platform for hosting a page that let users bet money when the US would officially confirm the rescue of two airmen after an American F-15E jet was downed over Iran.
US and Iranian military forces are searching for a missing American airman after its F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran on Friday. One crew member has been rescued, but another is not accounted for.
In a post on X, Moulton described the page as ‘disgusting’. “They could be your neighbor, a friend, a family member,” Moulton wrote on Friday. “And people are betting on whether or not they’ll be saved.”
In its response, Polymarket said: “We took this market down immediately as it does not meet our integrity standards. It should not have been posted, and we are investigating how this slipped through our internal safeguards.”
In a separate X post, Polymarket said it doesn’t “make money or charge any fees on any geopolitical markets.”
What is a prediction market, and how do they work?
A prediction market is an exchange-based platform where participants trade contracts speculating on the outcomes of future events, such as corporate earnings, currency movements, election results, etc.
AsXcritical explains,in these exchanges, traders buy and sell shares based on their expectations of how these events will unfold. Now, share prices fluctuate as participants react to shifting sentiment and collective beliefs about the most probable outcome. Those who bet correctly make money.
Currently, platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi allow participants to bet based on the outcome of geopolitical events, notesCfr.For example, such market predictions include a 25% chance of a ceasefire in Ukraine by 2026, a 6% probability of China invading Taiwan in 2025. A bet was also placed on Ayatollah Ali Khamenei where 19% participants put money on the fact that Iran’s Supreme Leader tenure would be ending in 2025.
The report also states that, “Bettors placed well over USD 1 billion in bets on the outcome of the 2024 United States (US) presidential election alone.”
Speaking about such bets, Moulton in an email response to CNBC said, “Polymarket didn’t take that market down because it violated their standards. They took it down because we called them out.”
Moulton also said that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has the authority to regulate prediction market platforms, but it is doing nothing.
“That needs to change, too,” he said. “Yesterday, there were 219 active bets in Polymarket’s ‘war’ category. Today, there are 223. This is spreading, and Congress needs to act.”
Noting that Donald Trump Jr is an active participants of such trades, Moulton said on X that Donald Trump Jr., the son of President Donald Trump, “is an investor in this dystopian death market and may have access to intelligence that isn’t public yet.”
Regulatory frameworks around prediction markets in the US
Prediction markets, which were once popular in the 1920s, have been considered taboo and largely prohibited in the US for the last two decades. However, following a long legal battle, platforms like Polymarket andKalshi have secured approval to operate once again, as the CFTC has decided to adopt a more permissive stance, allowing certain types of event and sports-based contracts.
A group of Democratic lawmakers in Congress introduced legislation late last month seeking to prohibit prediction markets from offering bets on elections, military conflicts, and government actions, in addition to sports-related outcomes.
In February, six Democratic senators also called on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to make clear that contracts tied to an individual’s death would not be permitted. The lawmakers warned that such offerings could pose “serious national security risks.”
English (US) ·