From Barrage To Slowdown: Iran's Drone, Missile Strikes Plunge Sharply After March 4 | Numbers Explained

Last Updated:March 20, 2026, 10:10 IST

After the initial surge, Iran’s attacks shifted in pattern, with daily numbers stabilising between 120 and 160 from March 2 to 8, while drones made up majority of incoming threats.

Iran began its military campaign against UAE on February 28 and March 1, launching hundreds of drones and missiles at the gulf nation. On the first day of the attack, Iran launched around 346 drones and ballistic missiles, however, the next day witnessed an even higher figure of 362 projectiles, making it the most intense phase of the operation.

Shift Towards Drone-Heavy Attacks

The nature of the operation changed after the initial surge. Between March 2 and March 8, daily attack numbers stabilised between 120 and 160, but the composition shifted heavily towards drones.

During this period, drones made up nearly 90 per cent of all incoming threats, but the missile launches dropped sharply. This points to a strategy focused on overwhelming air defences using large numbers of low-cost drones.

These drones, often identified as Shahed-type, are relatively cheap to produce, costing between 20,000 and 50,000 US dollars each. In contrast, the missiles used to intercept them can cost millions. Systems such as Patriot and THAAD interceptors can range from 3 million to as much as 12 million dollars per unit.

This cost imbalance plays a key role in the strategy. Analysts estimate that while Iran may have spent between 11 and 27 million dollars on a single wave of drone attacks, defending forces may have spent hundreds of millions to intercept them. Over the course of the campaign, defence costs in the UAE alone could have reached between 1.45 billion and 2.28 billion dollars, compared to an estimated 177 to 360 million dollars spent by Iran.

Sharp Decline In Attack Numbers

A noticeable shift took place after March 8, when the number of incoming threats dropped sharply. Daily figures fell from 134 on March 8 to just 33 on March 9, followed by 27 on March 10. Although numbers rose slightly in the following days, they remained well below earlier levels.

Several reasons may explain this sudden drop. It is possible that launch sites and infrastructure were disrupted by counter-operations. Another explanation could be the depletion of forward-positioned drone stockpiles, requiring time to rebuild supplies. Some analysts also suggest a deliberate pause to avoid further escalation.

Strong Defensive Response By UAE

Despite the scale of attacks, the UAE’s air defence systems appear to have performed effectively. Interception rates remained consistently high, between 95 and 99 per cent on most days. This indicates the success of a layered defence system involving advanced technologies such as THAAD and Patriot systems, along with shorter-range defences.

However, no defence system is perfect. Around 60 projectiles managed to get through, resulting in a penetration rate of about 3 to 4 per cent. Even so, experts consider this a strong performance given the scale and complexity of the attacks.

Brief Dip In Interception Rates Raises Questions

Towards the later stage of the campaign, a slight drop in interception rates was observed. On March 9 and 10, success rates fell to around 88 per cent, the lowest recorded during the period. Interestingly, this dip coincided with a sharp fall in the number of incoming threats.

This change may be linked to a shift in tactics. Instead of large waves, smaller groups of drones were likely used. These are harder to detect and can approach from different directions or at lower altitudes.

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