From Venezuela to Iran: Trump’s New Year shock and a world on edge

This search for the right word to describe Maduro’s fate comes from the astounding and incredible circumstances surrounding his detention. To give US President Donald Trump his due, he’d been warning the world and Maduro that “his days are numbered."

It’s those who naively believed that the US would uphold international law who are to blame for feeling shocked. But then, wasn’t it the US that advocated the primacy of international law? Of freedom/sovereignty of countries, etc?

American economist and public policy analyst Professor Jeffrey Sachs says regime change has been an “addiction" of the US security state, with some 100 such operations since 1945. Not all have been overt operations – wars, coups, deliberate instigated unrest to overthrow governments (recall Bangladesh in July-August 2024 here), stringent economic sanctions, assassinations – have all been part of the US regime change arsenal, according to Sachs.

The images of a handcuffed Maduro, sometimes with a blindfold, do recall the capture of former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein in 2003. The Maduro operation also has some similarities with the Pakistani Abbottabad raid in May 2011 in which Al Qaeda ideologue Osama bin Laden was killed. Remember the secrecy that shrouded that operation?

How did the US patiently and painstakingly piece together the daily routine of an aide of bin Laden? In this case too, the operation speaks volumes of the formidable human and technological intelligence capabilities of the US. Many Cubans and some Russians who were among Maduro’s inner security layer have been reported killed. The exact number is still unclear.

The question is: why suddenly target Maduro? Sure, he wasn’t exactly popular or liked by Venezuelans. But can one really compare Maduro with previous high-value targets like bin Laden or Saddam Hussein? Not sure.

Neither has Trump really said he was aiming to save oppressed Venezuelans.

But he has talked a lot about how US companies will extract and sell Venezuelan oil in the international market. One of the theories is that China was among the biggest buyers of Venezuelan oil.

This takeover, in essence, by the US (though Delcy Rodriguez is now in charge of Venezuela) means the US controls oil flows from the South American country. So, it puts a squeeze on China’s energy security, investments and influence in South America.

Trump’s recent National Security Strategy makes it clear that the US sees the so called “Western Hemisphere" as its backwater or sphere of influence.

“We want a Hemisphere whose governments cooperate with us against narco-terrorists, cartels, and other transnational criminal organizations; we want a Hemisphere that remains free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets, and that supports critical supply chains; and we want to ensure our continued access to key strategic locations," the NSS says. So the China angle has some credibility here. Remember how Trump forced Panama not to sell two canal ports to China last year? This is the “Donroe Doctrine" in action.

By the way, does increased focus on the Western Hemisphere underline the lesser importance accorded to the Indo-Pacific by Trump? If yes, that’s certainly bad news for India, which has been rather guarded in its comments on the Maduro incident.

Another theory on why Maduro was taken is that Trump was rattled by Maduro’s plans to use the dollar less and less as the currency for Venezuelan oil sales. Maduro was in fact reportedly happy to be paid in Chinese yuan or the Russian ruble. There was also speculation that Venezuela would join the BRICS (Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa) forum, that now includes six new nations, expanding the grouping to 11. Trump instinctively views BRICS as an anti-US, anti-dollar alliance and has previously threatened sanctions on BRICS members. With Maduro gone, those prospects cease to exist.

The charge that Maduro was heading a narco-terrorist state has been demolished by many within the US itself. While a conduit for drug trafficking, Venezuela is not a manufacturing hub for narcotics.

While Maduro may be out, the “day after plan" for Venezuela isn’t yet clear. Will Trump send US troops to Venezuela to ensure stability and forestall chaos? That will go against his stated policy of not getting involved in wars; it will also antagonize his MAGA (Make America Great Again) support base.

The Venezuela action also takes the spotlight away from Trump’s Ukraine peace plans – that weren’t going anywhere anyway. While many see the removal of Maduro as a blow to Russia, it could strengthen Moscow’s arguments about why it thinks Ukraine is a legit target. How can what’s good for the US be bad for others? Especially if you are a “great power" or think of yourself as one at least.

Who's safe?

Having seen Trump in action thus far, I think it’s time Europe got together solidly behind Denmark and thwarted Trump's threats to take over Greenland by force. Trump has said many times that he sees Greenland as central to US security. And he may well act on it, dealing a blow to the Nato alliance that he has shown undisguised disdain for.

Denmark has appropriately ordered its military to shoot first and ask questions later in case of a US takeover bid. That would be pure entertainment for say the Russians and the Chinese… the Nato ally fighting Nato ally kind of scene. The natural next question would be: Does Nato still exist?

Also wonder what message countries like China—which has its sights set on reunification with Taiwan—take away from this Venezuela operation? Will it embolden China to take over Taiwan? After all, if the Western Hemisphere is the US’ backyard, Taiwan and the South China Sea would be seen as China’s backyard – right? And what happens there could be seen as China’s business.

While Greenland should be on its guard, so should Colombia, Cuba and Iran too.

Trump labelled Columbian president Gustavo Petro a “sick man who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States" just days after the Venezuelan operation. Then with true Trumpian unpredictability, he also invited Petro to the White House this week. Either ways Petro would do well to watch his back.

In Cuba, the thaw initiated by then US president Barack Obama in 2015 feels like history. Under Trump, the policy could be attempting regime change through maximum economic pressure. Maduro’s Venezuela used to provide Cuba subsidised oil. That’s gone now. Could the Cubans rise up against the government in anger and overthrow the government? That would certainly be the New Year’s gift Trump was looking for.

Speaking of protests, there are some major ones happening in Iran over the weakening economy. Worth keeping a close look at that. Trump has threatened intervention if the Iranian government uses force to curb the protests. Weakened by Israeli and US action against it last year, will this be the point of collapse for the Iranian Khamenei government?

Protests have happened in the past – remember 2022 over the death of Masha Amini after her detention by the so-called Iranian moral police for improperly wearing the hijab. “We are locked and loaded and ready to go" was Trump’s grim warning to Iran last week. And on Friday (9 January) Trump suggested in an interview with Fox News's Sean Hannity that Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei was looking to flee the country. Are we looking at a different political map in the Middle East/West Asian region in the New Year?

All in all, an explosive start to 2026. All those who thought the political uncertainties, headwinds, disruptions of 2025 were behind them, think again. 2026 could just be the most uncertainty ridden year yet–outperforming even the covid-19 years.

Some of the events to watch for

• Trump’s engagements with China – the exchange of visits with Xi Jinping and a trade deal after the truce worked out last year
• India chairing the AI Summit in February and the BRICS summit later
• Elections in three neighbours of India – Myanmar, Nepal and Bangladesh.
• Polls further away in Brazil, Thailand and Russia, and of course the US midterms in November.
• In the UK, will Keir Starmer last out the year as PM?
• What happens to the Russia-Ukraine war? Will it drag on?
• Will India’s trade deals with the US and EU happen? And will Trump come to India for the Quad Leaders’ Summit?

Wait and watch this space.

Elizabeth Roche is an associate professor of practice, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.

For more of her columns, read The International Angle.