IMD forecasts hotter-than-normal summer for most of India

India is likely to experience a warmer-than-usual summer during the upcoming March-May 2026 season, with above-normal maximum temperatures forecast over most parts of the country, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). However, some parts of northwest and central India may see normal to below-normal daytime temperatures during the season, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, IMD's director general, said at a press briefing.

Above-normal heatwave days are also expected over most parts of the country, including West Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, south and east Maharashtra, east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka and some parts of north Tamil Nadu during March to May.

Night temperatures are also expected to remain above normal across most regions, except parts of south peninsular India and regions of the remaining parts of the country, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely.

For March specifically, maximum temperatures are likely to remain normal to below normal over many parts of India. In contrast, northeast India, adjoining eastern regions, parts of the western Himalayan region, and sections of central and peninsular India are expected to record above-normal daytime temperatures.

Minimum temperatures in March are projected to be above normal across most of the country. Exceptions include parts of northwest India, the south peninsula, and areas along the east coast, where normal to below-normal night temperatures are likely.

Scientists said that there is no adverse impact expected for wheat crop, which commands largest sowing area in the rabi season, under the prevailing weather conditions and that weather predictions for March are also favourable for the crop. "The average mean temperature remains within the optimal range required for wheat growth. The current climatic conditions are considered favourable for ensuring stable yields and good grain quality," said Ratan Tiwari, director, Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal.

According to scientists, daytime warmth mixed with cool night temperatures are helping maintain an optimal growth cycle. “If such conditions persist, farmers can expect improved productivity and better grain quality, raising hopes for a strong wheat harvest this season,” Tiwari added.

India’s rabi or winter crop sowing has increased by more than 1.58 million hectares to 67.68 million hectares in 2025-26 (as of 30 January), according to data released by the agriculture ministry. The sown area is 2.4% larger than a year earlier. The season's average coverage is 63.78 million hectares.

The expansion in sown area was largely driven by wheat, rice, pulses and oilseeds. Wheat coverage rose by 613,000 hectares, while the area under rice increased by 27,000 hectares compared to the previous year. The total area under wheat and rice touched 33.42 million hectares and 4.5 million hectares, respectively.

Pulses saw an overall increase of 503,000 hectares, driven mainly by a sharp rise of 498,000 hectares under gram. The total area under the pulses touched 13.95 million hectares. The area under oilseeds, led by rapeseed and mustard, also expanded to 9.72 million hectares, up by 352,000 hectares from last year.

Mohapatra also added that India is likely to experience an above-normal number of heatwave days during March-May, particularly across east and east-central India, large parts of the southeast peninsula, and some areas of northwest and west-central India.

The seasonal anomaly forecast indicates that while these regions may face increased heatwave frequency, the remaining parts of the country are likely to record a normal number of heatwave days during the period. For March specifically, isolated regions of Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are expected to experience above-normal heatwave days. The rest of the country is likely to see heatwave activity within normal limits during the month.

Elevated temperatures can lead to heat-related illnesses and put additional stress on infrastructure and resource management systems. “Accordingly, state authorities and district administrations are advised to ensure timely preparedness, including operational readiness of cooling shelters, adequate drinking water supply, and strengthened health surveillance,” Mohapatra said.