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Temperatures may rise 2-3°C before a sharp drop next week; thunderstorms and gusty winds likely across northern and central regions.
On 29 April, maximum temperatures ranged between 40°C and 46°C across most parts of the country, barring the Western Himalayan region, northeast India and adjoining eastern India. (Photo: HT)NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a 2-3 degrees Celsius rise in maximum temperatures across northwest India until 2 May, followed by a sharp 3-5°C drop between 3 May and 6 May. In central India, temperatures may ease by about 2°C through 1 May, with little change thereafter.
The IMD also expects isolated thunderstorms with lightning and gusty winds (40–60 kmph) over the Western Himalayan region, the plains of northwest India, and adjoining parts of central India during 3-6 May.
Heatwave conditions are likely in isolated pockets of Vidarbha on 1 May and in west Rajasthan on 2-3 May. Hot and humid weather is expected in parts of Odisha on 1 May; similar conditions are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal between 30 April and 4 May, and over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam and Rayalaseema from 30 April to 2 May.
On 29 April, maximum temperatures ranged between 40°C and 46°C across most parts of the country, barring the Western Himalayan region, northeast India and adjoining eastern India. The highest temperature of 45.8°C for the season so far was recorded at Banda in Uttar Pradesh.
Temperatures were markedly above normal (over 5.1°C higher) in isolated parts of west Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and appreciably above normal (3.1–5°C higher) in parts of Arunachal Pradesh and south interior Karnataka, as well as isolated pockets of Gangetic West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, east Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, Konkan and Goa, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
India's official weather forecaster defines a heatwave as temperatures at least 4.5°C above normal, with higher departures classified as severe.
Experts feel that increase in temperature may impact crop production costs. "Rising heat stress pushes up irrigation demand, forcing farmers to water crops more frequently and driving up their costs,” said Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission.
With a temporary easing of the heatwave, power demand has moderated from recent peaks. Peak demand stood at 241.33 GW on Wednesday, down from 253.47 GW on 28 April. India had recorded an all-time high of 256 GW on 25 April during last week’s intense heatwave.
Demand is likely to rise again with temperatures expected to climb. The Central Electricity Authority has projected peak demand of 271 GW for the current fiscal.
The spike in temperatures comes amid shifting global climate patterns, including the potential return of El Niño conditions. El Niño—a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean—is linked to hotter conditions and a weaker monsoon in India.
Earlier this month, the IMD forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall this year as the risk of El Niño rises. The southwest monsoon, which waters most of India’s farmlands, may be about 92% of its 50-year average this year, with 96–104% considered normal, the IMD said. The last below-normal monsoon occurred in 2023, when rainfall was 95%.
About the Authors
Vijay C Roy
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
Rituraj Baruah
Rituraj Baruah is a special correspondent covering energy, housing, urban affairs, heavy industries and small businesses at Mint. He has reported on diverse sectors over the last eight years including, commodities and stocks market, insolvency and real estate; with previous stints at Cogencis Information Services, Indo-Asian News Service (IANS) and Inc42.
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