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IMD said conditions are turning favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into the Andaman Sea, even as severe heatwave conditions intensify across parts of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining regions.
IMD has forecast below normal monsoon rains for 2026 amid emerging El Nino conditions. (Pexels Photo)NEW DELHI: Conditions are turning favourable for the crucial southwest monsoon to advance into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around 16 May, even as large parts of northwest, west and central India brace for intense heatwave conditions in the coming week, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest update.
A well-marked low-pressure area over the southwest and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal is aiding the progress of the monsoon current, while multiple upper-air cyclonic circulations over north and central India and a western disturbance over Jammu and adjoining regions are shaping weather patterns across the country, the weather forecaster said on Wednesday.
The southwest monsoon typically reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around the third week of May before advancing towards the Kerala coast. In 2025, the monsoon reached the Andamans on 13 May. The Indian mainland usually sees the onset on 1 June, marking the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June to September).
The weather forecaster has projected below-normal rainfall this monsoon season amid emerging El Nino conditions. The monsoon is vital for Indian agriculture, helping irrigate farms and replenish reservoirs.
The IMD said isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over northeast India during 14-19 May and over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, Kerala & Mahe and south interior Karnataka during 14-17 May.
Even as southern states are likely to see rain-led relief, it warned that heatwave to severe heatwave conditions are expected to persist across northwest India, west India and parts of central India during several days of the week.
West Rajasthan is likely to witness heatwave conditions at many places, with severe heatwave conditions in isolated pockets during 14-15 May. West Madhya Pradesh may also experience severe heatwave conditions during 14-17 May.
Heatwave conditions are also forecast in isolated pockets over Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, east Rajasthan, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and parts of Gujarat and Maharashtra during 14-19 May.
Warm night conditions are likely over parts of Rajasthan, Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra, while Konkan and Goa may see hot and humid weather on 14 May.
IMD said maximum temperatures are expected to rise gradually by 4-6 degrees Celsius over northwest India during 14-19 May, while central and east India could see temperatures increase by 2-4 degrees Celsius till 17 May.
On 12 May, maximum temperatures crossed 42 degrees Celsius across most parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha, Marathwada and west Madhya Pradesh. Barmer recorded the country’s highest maximum temperature at 48.3 degrees Celsius.
About the Author
Vijay C Roy
Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.
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