 (6).png)
11 hours ago
2
ARTICLE AD BOX
The IMF forecasts a resilient global economy, with a 3.3% growth rate in 2026, driven by AI investments. While easing trade tensions support growth, risks such as potential AI investment declines and geopolitical issues could challenge financial stability.
The world economy is likely to stay resilient this year despite President Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies, driven largely by heavy investments in artificial intelligence by companies in North America and Asia, the International Monetary Fund said in a report on Monday.
According to the IMF report, global economic growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, from an estimated 3.3% expansion in 2025. The 2026 outlook has been revised up by 20 basis points from the October forecast, while the 2027 projection remains unchanged.
The world economy “continues to show notable resilience despite significant US-led trade disruptions and heightened uncertainty,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and his colleague Tobias Adrian wrote in a blog post accompanying the latest update to the fund's World Economic Outlook.
What is supporting the growth?
This “surprising strength” reflects a confluence of factors, including easing trade tensions, higher-than-expected fiscal stimulus, accommodative financial conditions, the agility of the private sector in mitigating trade disruptions and improved policy frameworks, especially in emerging market economies, the blog post read.
The US economy is benefiting from companies investing in technology at the strongest pace since 2001. The IMF now sees the economy growing 2.4%, up from earlier forecasts and higher than the 2.1% growth expected for 2025.
China, the world's second-largest economy, is expected to see 4.5% growth, an improvement on the 4.2% the IMF had predicted in October, partly due to easing trade tensions with the United States after America reduced tariffs on Chinese exports.
Meanwhile, India, which has overtaken China as the world's fastest-growing major economy, is expected to grow more slowly. After expanding 7.3% last year, supported by an unexpectedly strong second half, growth is forecast to ease to a still-solid 6.4% in 2026.
Risks to the outlook
Looking ahead, the IMF also warned that there are still more risks than positives. If expectations about how much AI can boost productivity are scaled back, investment could drop, and equity markets, which are now heavily influenced by big tech companies, could witness a correction.
Ongoing trade disputes, geopolitical tensions, and high public debt levels could also weigh on growth and financial stability, the blog post said.
However, on the upside, faster and broader adoption of AI could lift productivity and support stronger medium-term growth, while sustained easing in trade tensions could improve policy predictability and investment.
The IMF further urged governments to adopt policies that rebuild fiscal buffers, keep prices and markets stable, reduce uncertainty, and push through structural reforms to support steady and lasting economic growth.
English (US) ·