In Assam’s election, welfare and infrastructure hog the limelight

“We have received a lot of benefits from the government—cash transfers, free ration, rural houses, gas connections and more. Plus, it has made roads, highways and bridges,” says Pranali Kalita Bora, noting that the government has done a lot for women and for the poor. Biju Saikia, Kalpana Saikia and Deepika Gogoi concur with that summation.

As with the last election, infrastructure and welfare delivery have again emerged as the biggest buzzwords in the run-up to this election. Despite chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) attempting to make a sharp detour from the state’s ethnic identity politics to strike a communal tone, conversations on the ground revolve around ‘unnayan’ (development) and ‘xubidha’ (benefits).

Assam, which has a 126-member assembly, votes on 9 April, with counting scheduled for 4 May along with other poll-bound states. In the 2021 election, the BJP won 60 seats with a 33.2% vote share, while the Congress won 29 seats and cornered a vote share of 29.2%.

There is much at stake both for the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress, and for the two state leaders leading these respective camps: CM Sarma and Gaurav Gogoi.

Sarma is quite unequivocally the face of the BJP in this election, unlike earlier when Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the trump card and the go-to name for voters. If in 2021, those supporting the BJP cited Modi and his work as the main factor (and those opposed blamed him), in 2026, it is Sarma or “mama” that is synonymous with the BJP.

Nipen Rompi of Morigaon, says he will support “mama” because of all the development work done by him, the infrastructure boost and welfare schemes for the needy. On the other hand, Pranab Jyoti Bora of Hajo says he wants to see a change in regime because he does not quite appreciate the CM’s public conduct and political language.

The Congress seems to be struggling with a cohesive and powerful narrative to counter the BJP. Its biggest hope would be if voters yearn for change amid a two-term anti incumbency.

Besides the BJP’s hold over the electorate today, what makes the election even more challenging for the Congress is the distortion in electoral math caused by the 2023 delimitation exercise. The redrawing of the boundaries of parliamentary and state legislature constituencies in Assam has meant a very significant dip in the number of seats where the Congress enjoyed a demographic advantage in terms of the minority vote.

For Gogoi, this is an uphill task given the party’s recent free fall in the state, its very public internal divisions, and, of course, the Sarma regime’s might and mass reach. The Congress leader, while well-liked in the state, is seen by many as a better fit to represent Assam in Delhi.

“We like Gaurav. He seems nice and upright. He is doing a great job of articulating Assam’s concerns in Parliament. But we wonder if he is a good fit for the state, if he is connected to the grassroots,” says Manab Bayan of Barpeta in lower Assam.

Gogoi has had quite a history of hostility with CM Sarma, a former Congressman, who was once his father’s righthand man. The chief minister, on several occasions, has launched direct attacks against Gogoi and his family, making this a rather bitter battle.

What poses a bigger problem for the Congress is the strong beneficiary base created by Sarma and what is seen as the BJP government’s push for visible infrastructure growth.

“Sarma’s government has made so many good roads and highways. Our village had no roads earlier. Plus, there has been a lot done for the poor,” says Manoj Deori of Jorhat. “Not everyone has received benefits, but most have received one or the other and generally, the welfare outreach of this government is helping the state.”

The BJP has unleashed a cocktail of welfarism in the state, from initiatives such as the Direct Benefits Transfer Scheme Orunodoi, under which nearly four million women received ₹9,000 each on 1 March, the Mahila Udyamita Abhiyan, which promises to empower women entrepreneurs, self-employment schemes Atmanirbhar Asom Abhijan and Assam Kalpataru Scheme, as well as the Modi government’s existing programmes, including rural housing and Ujjwala.

The construction of roads, highways and flyovers across the state has bolstered the Sarma government’s image of being development-oriented.

These factors seem to be most pertinent across geographies and age, with even young, first-time voters citing them as their priorities. Take, for instance, a classroom of mostly first-time but articulate and passionate voters in the prestigious Dibrugarh Hanumanbax Surajmall Kanoi College, who say infrastructure, outreach to the needy and quality education are their topmost concerns.

Says Bipasha Das, a fourth semester zoology honours student: “There is a lot being done for the poor and women. I come from a less privileged background, but government aid has facilitated my education and has helped improve our daily lives.”

Her classmate Aishwarya Dutta nods in agreement. Jyotishman Gogoi, a sixth semester student, cites the importance of good infrastructure as an enabler for the youth to pursue education, employment and other opportunities for growth.

A direct consequence of a welfare platform is the creation of an important vote bank in women. Much like Prime Minister Modi, Sarma has created a beneficiary base among Assam’s women voters, who are now a vocal, independent and aware electorate.

In Bhebarghat village, health workers Barnali Boniya and Tuli Kalita are in a rush to get to work. As they spare a moment to discuss the ongoing elections, they say they will support the BJP, pointing to benefits such as cash transfers, LPG cylinders, ration and BPL support. They claim that while some schemes haven’t reached them directly, they know the benefits are reaching the most needy women across the state, and that gives them confidence in the government.

Voters also cite rising prices as a worrying trend, urging the government to step in. In Bezpara village, Purobi Deka backs the BJP for development and welfare, but flags inflation. “Price rise hits the middle class the hardest and should be addressed, even if it means reducing some cash transfers,” says Deka, taking a nuanced view of how women voters weigh welfare against everyday costs.

In the Diffloo Tea Estate in Bokakhat, upper Assam, workers are busy plucking leaves braving a drizzle. Without looking up from their plucking duties, many say benefits from government schemes have not reached them as expected, and raise demands around land titles, Scheduled Tribes status, wages, and better access to education.

“We have not received anything—not money under Orunodoi, not the ST status we demanded, not land titles or any facilities from the government. We need government support, but we don’t receive anything,” says Baby Bakti.

The tea tribes constitute about 17-20% of the state’s population and are an influential electorate in around 30 seats, making them a coveted vote bank.

Another pain point for Bakti: no justice for Zubeen Garg. The extremely popular singer’s sudden death in Singapore last year triggered a wave of sorrow, ire and protests in Assam, and continues to be an emotional conversation point. Some hold the government responsible for the delay while others express disappointment.

Ambarish Nath of Nagaon says while Sarma promised justice for Garg, he has been unable to deliver on it. “The government’s work might otherwise be fine, but on this count, it has failed miserably and I may not want to support it because of this,” he says.

Sarma has pursued a particularly aggressive brand of Hindutva politics, introducing a sharp communal element to the state’s identity schisms. The Assam Agitation and anti-outsider movement of the late 1970s, 1980s and 1990s were mainly targeted at people of Bangladeshi origin and Bengali roots, irrespective of religion. The 1990s saw violent attacks even on the Marwari and Punjabi communities, driving many out of the state.

The current regime, however, has attempted to focus attention on miyas, a term used to denote Muslim migrants of Bengali origin.

Among the voters of Assam, however, this isn’t a cleavage that has gained as much traction as Sarma and company may have hoped for. Most, including those who are pro-BJP, express discomfort with this brazen “Hindu-Muslim” politics and say this isn’t in Assam’s DNA.

For instance, in Mangaldoi, which, in a sense, is at the heart of Assam’s ethnicity struggle given how a by-election here in the late 1970s triggered the Assam Agitation, voters say it isn’t religion that divides them.

Jayanta Sarma and Trailokya Deka say they reject “Hindu–Muslim politics” and emphasise that India is a secular country. They, however, insist that “outsiders” without citizenship—regardless of religion—should be sent back, reflecting enduring ethnic concerns.

Dhiren Barua of Kaliabor feels even more strongly about the issue. “CM Sarma’s language and public conduct make me feel deeply uncomfortable. His words and behaviour do not reflect the dignity of his office. I have seen so many leaders over the years, but nobody has spoken the way he does.”

Those supporting the BJP and Sarma seem to be doing so despite this communal rhetoric and not so much because of it, focussing on the delivery of benefits and on development work.

As Sarma continues to raise the pitch on communal politics, it is the minority community that is most on edge. As per the Census of 2011, Muslims constitute a little over 34% of the state’s population. With the political rhetoric increasingly veering towards communal dog whistling, this population is increasingly feeling targeted.

Zia-Ul-Mohammad of Ghilakuri village in Darrang says he would prefer change and would like to see Gogoi as chief minister. His view is driven by deep discomfort with the chief minister’s communal politics, which he feels is not in keeping with Assam’s ethos, and claims he may even have supported Sarma had it not been for this aspect.

“The chief minister only does Hindu-Muslim politics. This is not what Assam is about. My neighbours from across the street are all Hindus and for decades we have sat together to enjoy meals, festivals and even everyday tea,” says a visibly upset Rubul Hamid of Ghoga village in Nalbari. “The question is: who is an outsider, and not of Assamese origin. It has nothing to do with religion.”

Clearly, while the ruling dispensation has been going to great lengths to change the political lexicon, what matters most to voters is quality of life, which will play a key part in determining the outcome of the election.