India, Canada relaunch trade talks, target $50 billion by 2030

New Delhi: India and Canada on Monday formally relaunched negotiations for a comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA), targeting $50 billion in bilateral trade by 2030.

As Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney concluded his first official visit to India, the two sides finalised the terms of reference for the proposed pact. Both countries agreed to conclude negotiations by the end of 2026, according to a joint leaders’ statement issued after talks between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Carney.

The CEPA relaunch was positioned as the central pillar of a broader strategic partnership framework during the visit. The agreement is expected to cover trade in goods and services, along with other policy areas to be mutually agreed.

A revived ministerial dialogue on trade and investment will steer negotiations, backed by reciprocal ministerial visits and business delegations in the coming months, as per the joint statement.

The two countries will also make efforts to deepen sectoral cooperation across energy, critical minerals, clean technology, digital innovation and talent mobility

The leaders welcomed a C$2.6 billion long-term commercial agreement between Canada’s Cameco and India’s department of atomic energy for the supply of uranium ore concentrates, according to the statement.

Both sides also signalled intent to expand bilateral energy trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), crude oil and refined petroleum products, with Canada positioning itself as a long-term LNG supplier to the Indo-Pacific, the statement noted.

The two countries signed a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals to strengthen clean energy and advanced manufacturing supply chains. Canada’s participation in the International Solar Alliance and the Global Biofuels Alliance was also welcomed.

The visit also saw the signing of a trilateral technology and innovation MoU among India, Canada and Australia, signalling growing cooperation in emerging technologies including artificial intelligence and digital infrastructure. A separate MoU on renewable energy and another on cultural cooperation were also concluded.

On talent mobility, a pact between the All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) and Canada’s Mitacs will enable up to 300 fully funded research internships annually for Indian students from 2027. The leaders also welcomed 24 institutional partnerships spanning AI, healthcare and agriculture.

The two sides also agreed to establish an India–Canada defence dialogue and enhance coordination on counter-terrorism, cybersecurity and organised crime.

The talks mark a turnaround after relations deteriorated in 2023, when then Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged Indian agents' involvement in the killing of a Khalistani separatist—an accusation New Delhi rejected. The episode led to reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, a pause in trade negotiations and a temporary suspension of visa services, though merchandise trade continued.

Momentum to revive ties gathered pace after Modi and Carney agreed on the sidelines of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis on 18 June to restart negotiations. Subsequent visits by Canadian ministers helped rebuild engagement.

The formal resumption of CEPA negotiations between India and Canada marks a strategically timed reset in a relationship anchored in both trade complementarities and shared democratic values, said Agneshwar Sen, trade policy leader, EY India.

“At a time of supply-chain diversification and heightened geopolitical flux, a forward-looking CEPA can tick all the boxes - it will provide predictability for investors, facilitate mobility of talent, deepen collaboration in critical minerals, and support the development of clean energy,” Sen said.

For businesses, this restart will help restore confidence by creating dependable value chains and assured open markets. “The presence of a significant Indian diaspora in Canada will be an added factor in positioning both economies for taking advantage of the CEPA for a resilient and long-term growth of bilateral trade,” he added.

India’s trade with Canada remains slightly in deficit, with exports at $4.22 billion and imports at $4.44 billion in FY25. Exports grew from $3.84 billion in FY24, while imports fell from $4.55 billion.