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India is on track to become the world’s third-largest economy within the next few years, says Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw at WEF 2026 on Wednesday, citing strong growth, structural reforms, infrastructure investment and rising focus on manufacturing, innovation and AI.
India is on course to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy within the next few years, Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said on Wednesday, attributing the outlook to sustained structural reforms and focused execution over the past decade.
Addressing the World Economic Forum 2026, Vaishnaw said India is expected to maintain a real growth rate of 6% to 8%, supported by strong domestic fundamentals and long-term policy planning.
Four pillars underpinning growth
Vaishnaw outlined four strategic pillars driving India’s economic momentum. These include large-scale public investment across physical, digital and social infrastructure, inclusive growth to ensure benefits reach all sections of society, a renewed push for manufacturing and innovation, and continued efforts towards simplification.
“All this, combined with the base of technology that we have put in, we can very clearly say that India is going to grow with 95% confidence interval in the next five years,” Vaishnaw said, adding that the “security of the poorest comes as a priority”.
India could reach milestone by 2028
Economist Gita Gopinath broadly agreed with the assessment, saying it is “a matter of a few years” before India becomes the world’s third-largest economy, unless disrupted by a major global shock.
She noted that based on current economic trajectories relative to other major economies, “India gets there by 2028”, and could do so even earlier depending on the upcoming GDP rebasing exercise.
However, Gopinath stressed that the larger challenge lies beyond aggregate GDP. She said the key task is “raising per capita incomes to higher levels” to meet India’s goal of becoming a developed country by 2047.
Global debt flagged as key risk
Vaishnaw also warned of external risks stemming from rising global instability, particularly high debt levels in advanced economies.
“What’s really a matter of concern on our mind is the global debt, which is there in the rich world and how that debt will unravel,” he said, pointing to a recent “run on the bonds” in Japan as a warning sign.
He added that a broader fiscal shock could have serious implications for India’s growth path, despite strong domestic fundamentals and moderate inflation.
Cooperative federalism and reforms
On domestic reforms, Vaishnaw reiterated the government’s focus on cooperative federalism, citing states such as Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra as examples of reform-driven progress.
He said recent steps, including labour reforms and opening up sectors such as nuclear energy to private participation, represent “major, major, major” moves towards modernisation.
Inviting feedback from global stakeholders, Vaishnaw said the government aims to act as a catalyst for growth in India.
Push across the AI stack
Separately, the minister highlighted India’s ambitions in artificial intelligence. In a post on X, Vaishnaw wrote: “India is working on all 5 layers of the AI architecture: application, model, chip, infra and energy. We are building the foundation for global AI services.”
(With inputs from PTI)
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