Iran talks, China’s rise, and US’s shrinking ally base

Iran said on Friday (17 April) that the Strait of Hormuz is open. The announcement came almost simultaneously from US President Donald Trump (via Truth Social) and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (on X).

“In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organisation of the Islamic Rep. of Iran,” Aragchi’s X post read.

“Iran has just announced that the Strait of Iran is fully open and ready for full passage. Thank you!” read Trump’s post. (What he meant was Straits of Hormuz, a Freudian slip in his excitement to relay or “break” the news to the world but says volumes about what Trump secretly thinks of the Strait of Hormuz)

A key point in Aragchi’s X post is that the Strait will be open for the “remaining period of the ceasefire”. Does it refer to the Israel-Lebanon truce announced on Thursday (16 April)? Or does it refer to the US Iran ceasefire?Predictably, oil prices softened following the announcement.

Iran’s announcement on the Strait of Hormuz comes almost 24 hours after Trump announced that a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would begin on Tuesday. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was a critical demand placed by Iran on the negotiating table. (Though Trump said on Truth Social that the opening of Hormuz by Iran had nothing to do with the Israel-Lebanon deal.)

That said, reopening the Strait may have been a relatively easier concession for Iran given the more complex issues on the table: uranium enrichment, its missile programme, demands for reparations, and support for proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, who could disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Even as Tehran signalled openness, the US said its naval blockade would continue. "The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

So, how soon is a deal possible? It is hard to say, though reports suggest Pakistan is getting ready to host another round of peace talks…fingers crossed (or not) on that one!

Meanwhile, Trump seems happy with Pakistan’s mediation efforts led by Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump has also said he could visit Pakistan if there is a deal with Iran to be signed. Good luck on that!

Trump may not get a welcome like the one he received in India in February 2020—genuine warmth reflected in the large crowds of common people lining the roads.

Don’t be surprised if Pakistan is handsomely rewarded for its services, i.e., shuttling between the US and Iran with messages, and for giving space in Islamabad for the talks. Better to anticipate such outcomes than be surprised by them later.

Other reports suggest a possible clause barring Iran from enriching uranium for 5 to 20 years. In case this works out, won't it be something like the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA reached by the Obama administration that Trump walked out of in 2018.) It entailed curbs on Iran’s nuclear capabilities that were closely monitored by international inspectors.

Iran’s announcement on the Strait of Hormuz comes almost 24 hours after Trump announced that a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon would begin on Tuesday. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was a critical demand placed by Iran on the negotiating table. (Though Trump said on Truth Social that the opening of Hormuz by Iran had nothing to do with the Israel-Lebanon deal.)

That said, reopening the Strait may have been a relatively easier concession for Iran given the more complex issues on the table: uranium enrichment, its missile programme, demands for reparations, and support for proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, who could disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Even as Tehran signalled openness, the US said its naval blockade would continue. "The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete," Trump wrote on Truth Social.

So, how soon is a deal possible? It is hard to say, though reports suggest Pakistan is getting ready to host another round of peace talks…fingers crossed (or not) on that one!

Meanwhile, Trump seems happy with Pakistan’s mediation efforts led by Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump has also said he could visit Pakistan if there is a deal with Iran to be signed. Good luck on that!

Trump may not get a welcome like the one he received in India in February 2020—genuine warmth reflected in the large crowds of common people lining the roads.

Don’t be surprised if Pakistan is handsomely rewarded for its services, i.e., shuttling between the US and Iran with messages, and for giving space in Islamabad for the talks. Better to anticipate such outcomes than be surprised by them later.

Other reports suggest a possible clause barring Iran from enriching uranium for 5 to 20 years. In case this works out, won't it be something like the Iran nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA reached by the Obama administration that Trump walked out of in 2018. It entailed curbs on Iran’s nuclear capabilities that were closely monitored by international inspectors.

For Trump, who has to visit China next month, getting the Iran problem resolved is key. It would allow him to project the image of a winner. Never mind the role that the Chinese played in nudging Iran to the negotiating table. It’s a no-brainer that China has more leverage and clout over Iran today than possibly any other country, given its commercial and even military links with Tehran.

In China, recent data showed the economy grew 5% in the first three months of 2026, beating expectations of 4.5–4.8%. The performance—driven largely by exports, especially electric vehicles and lithium batteries—offset weak domestic consumption.

This was despite export growth slowing in March as the Iran war impacted energy and logistics costs, weighing on global demand. Louis Kuijs, chief economist for Asia and the Pacific at S&P Global Ratings, quoted by the NYT pointed out that overseas sales were keeping factories busy across China.

This will buoy China and give President Xi Jinping a strong hand ahead of the talks with Trump next month.

Last but not least, in the Hungarian elections, incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orbán suffered a major defeat. In the 12 April polls, he was widely tipped to win again despite having been in office for 16 years. Recall here that US Vice President J.D. Vance travelled to Budapest to campaign for him. Vance also called Trump who spoke to Orban’s supporters.

On the day of reckoning, however, Peter Magyar and his Tisza party secured 138 seats in the 199-member parliament.

The election loss for Orban means Trump is now one ally less in the world. Trump now has an unenviable record of having angered, annoyed, and made enemies of practically all of the US allies – the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy and Australia. Of course, he can call Field Marshal Asim Munir his friend but that has limited utility. And there may be some Gulf countries that he could list as “friends.”

But the question is, after the pounding the Gulf nations received at the hands of Iran, thanks to hosting US bases and Trump not exactly doing much to protect them, would they want to be known as Trump’s friends?

Question for Trump to ponder over: how many allies are now left standing in his corner after the indiscriminate and unreasonable tariffs and hurling of insults at many of them? In contrast, look at the number of international leaders who have visited Beijing since Trump took office… the numbers don’t lie; in fact, they tell you the real story. Today, China looks more balanced, stable, reliable and predictable, perhaps even a reasonable partner compared to the US and Trump.