Iran unfazed by US naval blockade? CIA says Tehran can withstand barrier for months amid Gulf clashes

Efforts to end the conflict between the U.S. and Iran appeared to lose momentum on Friday as both sides exchanged fire in the Gulf, while a U.S. intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Tehran could endure a naval blockade for several months, as reported by Reuters.

A CIA assessment indicated that Iran would not suffer severe economic pressure from a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports for about another four months, as reported by Reuters, citing a US official familiar with the matter, suggesting that US leverage over Tehran remains limited as the two sides seek to end a conflict that has been unpopular with US voters.

The Washington Post first reported the assessment.

A senior intelligence official called the “claims” about the CIA analysis “false,” saying the blockade “is inflicting real, compounding damage - severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”

The past few days have witnessed the most intense clashes in and around the Strait of Hormuz since a ceasefire took effect a month ago, with the United Arab Emirates once again coming under attack on Friday.

At the same time, Washington is awaiting Tehran’s response to a U.S. proposal aimed at formally ending the war before moving on to negotiations over more contentious matters, including Iran’s nuclear programme.

“We should know something today,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters in Rome earlier in the day. “We're expecting a response from them.”

Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said Tehran was still weighing its response, and none was reported by mid-afternoon in Washington, just before midnight in Tehran, Reuters reported.

The U.S. military said it had targeted two Iran-linked vessels attempting to reach an Iranian port, with an American fighter jet striking their smokestacks and forcing the ships to turn back.

Iran has largely restricted non-Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict erupted following joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes across Iran on February 28. Last month, the United States also imposed a blockade on Iranian vessels.

Amid the escalating tensions, oil prices moved higher, with Brent crude futures trading above $101 per barrel, although prices remained more than 6% lower for the week

Trump said on Thursday the ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-ups in the strait, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world's oil supply.

The confrontation extended beyond the waterway. The United Arab Emirates said its air defenses engaged with two ballistic missiles and three drones from Iran on Friday, with three people sustaining moderate injuries.

During the war, Iran has repeatedly targeted the UAE and other Gulf states that host U.S. military bases. In what the UAE called a "major escalation", Iran stepped up attacks this week in response to Trump's announcement of "Project Freedom" to escort ships in the strait, which he paused after 48 hours.

"Every time a diplomatic solution is on the table, the U.S. opts for a reckless military adventure," Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday. Iran's Mehr news agency reported that one crew member was killed, 10 wounded and four missing after a U.S. Navy attack on an Iranian commercial ship late on Thursday.

Rubio, after meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, questioned why Italy and other allies were not backing Washington's efforts to re-open the strait.

"Are you going to normalize a country claiming to control an international waterway? Because if you normalize that, you've set a precedent that's going to get repeated in a dozen other places," he said.

The U.S. Treasury on Friday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and companies, including several in China and Hong Kong, for aiding efforts by Iran's military to secure weapons and raw materials used to build Tehran's Shahed drones.

Treasury said in a statement it remains ready to take economic action against Iran's military industrial base so Tehran cannot reconstitute its production capacity and project power abroad.

It also said it was prepared to act against any foreign company supporting illicit Iranian commerce and could impose secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions, including those connected to China's independent “teapot” oil refineries, Reuters reported.

The announcement came days before Trump plans to travel to China for a meeting with President Xi Jinping.

(With inputs from Reuters)