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The ongoing US-Israeli war on Iran is the most unpopular conflict in US history, impacting Trump's midterm election prospects. Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio are potential candidates for succession, with their political fortunes tied to the war's developments and Trump's decisions.
Marco Rubio, US secretary of state, from left, US President Donald Trump, and Pete Hegseth, US secretary of defense, during a cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Thursday, March 26, 2026. Photographer: (Bloomberg)The US-Israeli war on Iran is in its fifth week, and according to opinion polls, it is the most unpopular conflict in the country’s history. This is more bad news for the Donald Trump administration, which is already on the back foot in the midterm elections in November.
A prolonged war, or even more US losses, including service personnel, could further tilt the vote in favour of the Democrats, leaving Trump a lame-duck president for the rest of his second and last term in office.
Republican presidential candidate in 2028
Despite Trump’s repeated suggestion that his name could be on the ballot in 2028, the 79-year-old is unlikely to get a third term, leaving one of his two close confidants as his likely successor as the Republican Presidential candidate.
These are US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Analysts believe that the Iran war could be the make-or-break moment for Vance and Rubio, both of whom are currently involved in the negotiation process.
Is Trump favouring Rubio?
Some Republicans say they are watching closely for which senior aide Trump appears to favor as the Iran conflict unfolds.
According to Reuters, a swift end to the war that favors the US might bolster Rubio, who also serves as Trump's national security adviser and could be seen as a steady hand during a crisis. A prolonged conflict could give Vance space to argue he reflected the anti-war instincts of Trump’s base without openly breaking with the president.
"Everyone is watching the body language that Trump makes on Rubio and not seeing the same on Vance," a Republican with close ties to the White House told Reuters.
The White House, however, rejected the idea that Trump is signaling a preference.
"No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration's mission of fighting for the American people," spokesman Steven Cheung said.
What could work for Vance
Recently, Vance was involved in what is being described as a tense phone call with Benjamin Netanyahu over overstating the possibility of a US-Israeli bombing campaign toppling the Iranian regime.
According to Axios, US officials also think some of their Israeli counterparts consider the vice president insufficiently hawkish, and that the Israelis were seeking to undermine the vice president as he takes a lead role in efforts to end the war.
A senior US official told Axios that “if the Iranians can’t strike a deal with Vance, they don’t get a deal. He’s the best they’re gonna get.”
According to Reuters, Vance could take on a more direct role in negotiations if Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner make sufficient progress, a person with knowledge of the matter said.
Rubio vs Vance
A person familiar with Vance's views told Reuters the vice president will wait until after the November midterm elections before deciding on whether to run in 2028.
Rubio has said he will not run for president if Vance does, and sources familiar with Rubio's views say he would be content as Vance's running mate.
In the past, Trump has floated the idea of Vance and Rubio running together, suggesting they would be hard to beat.
Key Takeaways
- The Iran war is a pivotal moment for both JD Vance and Marco Rubio in shaping their political futures.
- Public sentiment on the war could influence the upcoming midterm elections and Trump’s administration.
- The dynamics of Trump’s support could play a critical role in determining the 2028 Republican candidate.
About the Author
Bobins Vayalil Abraham
Bobins loves telling the human side of all stories, from the intersection of geopolitics, international relations, and conflicts around the world. In his nearly one-and-a-half-decade career as a journalist, Bobins has covered South Asia, the Middle East, and North America, from elections to mass protests and conflicts. <br> Bobins has also done extensive reporting on environmental issues, climate change, and sustainability, focusing on solutions and people working to make the planet a better place to live. <br> In 2018, Bobins was awarded by Times Internet for the impact of his story on Delhi tree cuttings. Bobins also loves telling the stories of Indian startups and the journey of their founders. <br> Total Years of Experience: 14 <br> Years of experience at LM: Bobins has been a part of Live Mint since February 2026 <br> Interests: When he is not tracking conflicts, Bobins loves to cook, travel across India, click photos, and watch documentaries on history. Past Experience: Before joining Live Mint, Bobins worked with The Indian Express, where he led the Global Breaking News coverage, Indiatimes, where he led the news team, covering everything trending, ANI, where the focus of his coverage was South Asia, and NBS News. <br> Current Role: Bobins is currently working as an Assistant Editor at Live Mint.
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