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Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its partner Komeito won around 41 of the 125 upper house seats contested on Sunday, short of the 50 needed to retain a majority, Nippon TV and TBS projected, based on exit polls.
National broadcaster NHK projected that the LDP could win anything between 27 and 41 seats and Komeito between five and 12, making retaining a majority “difficult".
The right-wing populist party Sanseito was meanwhile projected to have made strong gains, winning between 10 and 22 seats, adding to the two it already holds in the 248-seat chamber.
After the lower house elections in October, Ishiba’s governing coalition was humiliatingly forced into a minority government, shortly after he became prime minister and called the snap vote.
Ishiba, 68, known for being a policy enthusiast or “geek" seen as a safe pair of hands when he won the LDP leadership in September, remained silent about his plans.
“It’s a difficult situation, and we have to take it very humbly and seriously," Ishiba told broadcaster NHK. Asked about his future, he said only that he “cannot speak lightly of it".
“We can’t do anything until we see the final results, but we want to be very aware of our responsibility," Ishiba added.
“Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it’s not clear who will be the successor," Hidehiro Yamamoto, a politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, told AFP.
Ishiba’s centre-right LDP has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955, albeit with frequent changes of leader.
Japan’s LDP, led by Shigeru Ishiba, has been in power for most of the time since 1955, with the party experiencing frequent leadership changes throughout its long tenure.
Ishiba took over in September on his fifth attempt and immediately called elections.
But this backfired, and the vote left the LDP and its small coalition partner Komeito needing support from opposition parties, stymying its legislative agenda.
Rising prices and declining living standards have sparked voter frustration.
Atsushi Matsuura, a 54-year-old voter in Tokyo, expressed his concerns to AFP, saying, “Commodity prices are going up, but I am more worried that salaries aren’t increasing."
Not helping is lingering resentment about an LDP funding scandal, and US tariffs of 25 per cent due to bite from August 1.
Japan’s imports face a 10% tariff, and its auto industry, which supports 8% of the country’s jobs, is struggling due to a 25% levy imposed by the US. Despite efforts to negotiate, including an early meeting between Ishiba and US President Donald Trump in February, and multiple visits by Japan’s trade envoy to Washington, a trade agreement has yet to be reached.
Trump poured cold water on the prospects of an agreement last week, saying Japan won’t “open up their country".
“We will not easily compromise," Ishiba said this month.
‘Japanese First’
The last time the LDP lost power was in 2009, when the now-defunct Democratic Party of Japan governed for a rocky three years.
Today, the opposition is fragmented, and chances are slim that the parties can form an alternative government.
The “Japanese-first" Sanseito wants “stricter rules and limits" on immigration, opposes “globalism" and “radical" gender policies, and wants a rethink on decarbonisation and vaccines.
Recently, the party was compelled to refute allegations of ties to Moscow, particularly after one of its candidates appeared in an interview with Russian state media, raising eyebrows due to Russia’s history of supporting populist parties in other countries.
“They put into words what I had been thinking about but couldn’t put into words for many years," one voter told AFP at a Sanseito rally.
(With inputs from AFP)
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