Legal Immigration Falls Faster Than Illegal Entries Under Trump, H-1B Visas Down 25%: Analysis

Last Updated:April 22, 2026, 20:36 IST

The Washington-based think tank researcher argued that while illegal crossings have continued to fall, policy changes have hit legal migration routes much harder.

The United States has seen a sharper decline in legal immigration than illegal entries under President Donald Trump’s administration, with high-skilled workers and international students among the most affected, according to an analysis by David J. Bier of the Cato Institute.

The Washington-based think tank researcher argued that while illegal crossings have continued to fall, policy changes have hit legal migration routes much harder.

“Although the full data won’t be in for months, we can assess that the cuts to illegal entries are likely less than half of the total cuts to immigration on a monthly basis," Bier wrote in an analysis published on April 13.

He estimates that reductions in legal inflows are around 2.5 times greater than the fall in illegal immigration on a monthly basis.

Legal migration sees sharper policy-driven fall

Bier’s analysis suggested that illegal border crossings were already falling significantly before Trump took office in January 2025, continuing a longer-term downward trend. Border Patrol arrests at the south-west border, he noted, had dropped by over 80% from their peak even before the current administration began.

“But again, by December 2024, evasions had fallen well before Trump took office, falling by 83 percent from their peak in November 2022," he noted.

However, legal immigration has seen a much steeper and policy-driven contraction. The report says student visas and skilled worker pathways, including H-1B visas, have reversed the growth seen between 2021 and 2024.

International student visas reportedly fell by about 40% last summer compared with the previous year, following policy measures such as visa suspensions, cancellations and restrictions on several countries.

H-1B visas face sharp decline

The analysis also highlighted a significant fall in skilled worker migration. H-1B visa issuances are estimated to have dropped by about 25%.

According to Bier, the decline follows a series of policy actions, including a $100,000 fee introduced for certain H-1B petitions for workers outside the United States. He noted that in FY 2024, more than 219,000 H-1B visas were issued abroad, with a large share potentially affected by the policy shift.

“There were 65,000 H‑1B approvals for workers outside of the US in FY 2024, and there were  219,659 visas issued abroad, implying that about 30 percent of visa issuances are for workers targeted by the ban," he wrote.

The report also cited internal data suggesting steep declines in petitions following the fee announcement, though it says the full impact may still take time to emerge.

“Since the fee only applies to new petitions approved after September 2025, it might take a bit longer than projected for the full effect to be felt," he added.

News world Legal Immigration Falls Faster Than Illegal Entries Under Trump, H-1B Visas Down 25%: Analysis

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