Mint Explainer: Will the latest round of US-Iran talks succeed?

Mint explores the implications of this recalibrated power dynamic for the future of the nuclear deal.

What are the talks about?

The subject is Iran’s nuclear programme—specifically, a complete end to Tehran’s uranium enrichment. The US also wants Iran to hand over 440 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium, estimated to be enough material to make 10 nuclear bombs.

Washington also wants to widen the ambit of the talks to include Iran’s ballistic missile programme, its backing of armed groups in the region, and the “treatment of their own people", US secretary of state Marco Rubio has said. Iran has refused to do this, restricting talks to the nuclear issue alone.

Foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is representing Iran in Oman, while Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff are representing the US.

What events form the backdrop to the talks?

Iran is seen as being at its weakest in decades. It has seen major popular protests in recent weeks over high costs of living. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei government used force to put down these protests, prompting Trump to post on X that help was “on the way". The number of civilian deaths reported varies between 6,100 and 30,000.

The diplomatic climate shifted drastically in June 2025, when President Trump ordered targeted airstrikes on three of Iran’s most critical nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan. While the full extent of the structural damage remains unknown, the strikes delivered a clear message: the US is now willing to use force to bypass diplomatic deadlocks.

The most significant shift, however, is the systematic dismantling of Iran’s regional influence. The US airstrikes coincided with Israel decimating Iran-supported groups such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Well before this, the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in December 2024 stripped Tehran of its most vital Arab ally.

What has the US done to ratchet up the pressure on Iran?

The US military buildup in the Middle East consists of the Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, three guided-missile destroyers, and the carrier air wing including squadrons of F/A-18E Super Hornet fighters, F-35C Lightning II fighters, and EA-18G Growler electronic warfare jets.

On 6 February, the day of the talks, Trump issued an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on countries making direct or indirect purchases from Iran.

Can Iran put pressure on the US and its allies?

Yes, it can—by closing the Straits of Hormuz. The waterway between Iran and Oman connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. CNBC, quoting data from commodity intelligence platform Kpler, said about 13 million barrels per day of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, or about 31% of global seaborne crude flows. Any disruption here would cause international crude prices to spike. Iran has also warned it could strike US military bases in the region.

How do Iran-US tensions affect India?

Rising tensions between Iran and the US disrupt the stability of the entire Middle East, affecting Indians not just in Iran but in other countries as well. It has a direct impact on India’s energy security as a major chunk of crude oil imports are sourced from countries in the Middle East, though not from Iran itself. For Indians, higher fuel prices automatically translate to higher inflation for all essential commodities. India also has an estimated 9-10 million expatriates in the Gulf region who send back valuable foreign remittances.

What are the chances of the talks succeeding?

It’s difficult to say. The last time the US and Iran sat down for talks in 2025, the US struck Iran’s nuclear sites days before a fresh round of negotiations was to take place. Around the same time, Israel killed many top Iranian military personnel.

Also, a significant diplomatic chasm remains between the two sides. Tehran continues to reject any demand to relinquish its stockpile of enriched uranium or accept external caps on its enrichment activities, viewing these as core sovereign rights. Washington for its part wants Iran to give up its enriched uranium and to stop quelling protests.

There is also the question of regime change. Israel wants to see the end of the Khamenei government and may this is the right time to act on it, with Iran at its weakest in decades.

Elizabeth Roche is associate professor, OP Jindal Global University.