Mint Quick Edit | China’s $1 trillion plus trade surplus could worsen global turbulence if Beijing shrugs it off

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China's success in diversifying trade has unsettled many countries.(Bloomberg)

Summary

China is set to surpass $1 trillion as its trade surplus in 2025 despite US tariffs, thanks to its aggressive export expansion to other markets. It’s for Beijing to address the alarm this is raising in other countries.

China’s role as the world’s big factory isn’t weakening in the face of the US’s tariff-policy pushback. Its trade surplus is set for a record high in 2025, with exports exceeding imports by nearly $1.1 trillion in the first 11 months of the year, according to official data released on Monday, topping the trillion-dollar mark for the first time.

Sure, its exports to the US slumped about 29% from a year earlier in November, but this was more than offset by export expansion to other markets. To Australia, for instance, China’s exports rose about 36% last month and to the EU by about 15%. Overall, China’s exports recorded a 6%-odd rise in November.

Its success in diversifying trade has unsettled many countries. French President Emmanuel Macron warned Beijing during his just-concluded visit there that the EU would respond with tariff barriers if it doesn’t reduce its trade surplus with it. Several Asian markets have also been stormed by Chinese goods this year.

All this raises the risk of a chain reaction of barriers going up globally and revives fears of a “currency war” of competitively engineered depreciation. If Beijing is committed to China’s “peaceful rise”, it must mitigate the anxiety it is causing.

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