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18 hours ago
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Summary
China’s economy did better in the first quarter of 2026 than its export slump last month had suggested. Meeting its full-year GDP goal may need global trade to normalize, but whether geo-strategic aims will shape its game is a multi-trillion dollar question.
China’s economy got off to a solid start in 2026, with its GDP growing 5% in the first quarter, according to official data released on Thursday. This exceeded the expectations of economists and struck the top-end of the 4.5-5% growth aim set by Beijing for the full year.
Driving the expansion were China’s robust exports for the quarter, although its March shipments faced severe headwinds. While China has large buffer stocks of oil and diverse sources of supply, the war in West Asia has been a problem for it. Durable peace would suit its economy.
Since its domestic consumption has been sluggish, it needs trade disruptions to end and global demand to recover. That would make it easier to reach its 2026 GDP growth goal, which is anyway the lowest Beijing has set since 1991.
Whether China consistently puts its economic interests above its long-term geopolitical ambitions, however, is not always clear. As hostilities in West Asia involve the US, its archrival, and Iran, a country it has forged close ties with, its calculus may go beyond its near-term need for export expansion. If Beijing spies a way to hasten a power shift in its favour, it might prioritize that.
English (US) ·