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Summary
Hope has been kindled by high-level talks over ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Kyiv may have to cede some of Ukraine’s territory, while Moscow would need to accept the rest of it as something of a Nato protectorate. Both warring sides must show flexibility now.
February will mark four years of the Russia-Ukraine war, but there’s a glimmer of hope that a peace deal will prevent a fifth year of hostility.
High-level talks are underway. Kyiv wants Ukraine’s sovereignty backed by the West’s military as well as a treaty pledge by Moscow.
The US appears ready to extend or enable a security shield for this purpose, but without formally admitting Ukraine to the Nato alliance.
America’s European allies, keen to let their embattled neighbour into the EU, may have to share not just much of the defence burden, but also bear a sizeable chunk of Kyiv’s rebuilding bills.
Yet, the hardest part is likely to be a territorial settlement. Russia has been eyeing the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, including bits that it hasn’t yet occupied.
While Kyiv has sought a neutral zone in Donbas, Moscow seems bent on the annexation of all parts of Ukraine where Russian is the majority language.
If Nato pledges to give up expansion and gets Kyiv to cede some land for a durable truce, guns could fall silent.
Maps must not be redrawn in blood. But with so much of it shed since February 2022, any workable deal should be grabbed.
Both warring sides need to be flexible.
English (US) ·