Mint Quick Edit | India-China trade swelled in 2025: Will this remain a largely one-way story?

While he didn’t share details, the value of what we import from China has long dwarfed that of what we export there and this gap shows no sign of reduction. As global trade patterns shift, can we expect a better bilateral balance?

With a lower US tariff than what China faces, as an India-US trade deal promises, we can hope to attract some global value chains in search of diversification. Scope for chains to run from China to the US via India, however, will depend on the rules-of-origin set out by America.

China’s cost edge in bulk manufacturing is too sharp for its stuff not to find its way to other shores and the extent to which America’s geopolitical bent can change that is unclear.

Many of our factories rely on Chinese inputs. One idea is to lure China’s exporters to invest in capacity here, creating local jobs. This would call for delicate triangular diplomacy, but may help boost our exports to various markets, including Asia’s largest.