Mint Quick Edit | JPMorgan says oil could plunge to $30 by the end of 2027: Here’s why it may not

JPMorgan sees Brent crude averaging about $58 a barrel in 2026 and then falling further, with a possible scenario of greater oversupply pushing it down to nearly $30 by the end of 2027, less than half the latest price of about $62.

Other analysts like Goldman Sachs have also recommended going short on oil. An unstated assumption seems to be that the Opec+ oil cartel will either lose its ability to curtail supply or pump out more to flood the market and push its US shale-oil rivals into a quandary, since the latter’s high costs mean their margins get tightly squeezed if prices drop below $55-60, as estimated.

In fact, shale extraction costs may have set the prevailing price band. It keeps efficient shale players in business. If oil rises above $70, higher-cost producers add to American output, capping how far Opec+ can tighten spigots to drive up oil prices; and if oil slips below $60, shale production tends to sputter.

Could this dynamic take JPMorgan’s forecast apart? An oil-guzzling India should hope it doesn’t.