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Summary
Just as India and the US strike a friendlier tone, Trump’s fresh tariff threat over Iran poses an awkward new risk. India’s trade with Iran may look small, but the signal sent is unsettling for exposing Indian autonomy to collateral damage in a larger American game.
Even as US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor struck a positive note on bilateral ties, President Donald Trump has again put India in a difficult position by announcing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. This could elevate the charge on Indian goods shipped to the US to 75% from an already-steep 50%.
India’s trade with Iran has slumped since 2019, when India stopped importing oil from it in response to US sanctions. In 2024-25, total trade with it was placed at $1.7 billion, which seems small enough to give up if push comes to shove.
Trump’s threat could turn out to be a US weapon for talks with a regime in Tehran that it looks keen to either take over or topple via an economic squeeze. Even if so, it exposes India to the unseemly risk of collateral damage.
As New Delhi’s negotiations with the US over a trade deal drag on, this unexpected complication not only clouds the picture, it sends a with-us-or-against-us signal that seems dismissive of India’s strategic autonomy.
To be sure, China has far greater trade with Iran. But given its ability to hit back at Washington with supply curbs of its own, Beijing is unlikely to be ruffled. It is New Delhi that may need to go into a diplomacy overdrive.
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