Monsoon 2026: Skymet sees below normal rains.

5 hours ago 1

ARTICLE AD BOX

Skymet predicts a 6% shortfall in 2026 rainfall, reiterating its January outlook of a subpar monsoon.

Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western India to witness inadequate rainfall.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet on Tuesday projected a below normal South-West monsoon for 2026, estimating rainfall at 94% (±5%) of the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm for the June-September season.

The private forecaster’s January outlook had already flagged a subpar monsoon, with the state-run India Meteorological Department (IMD) set to issue its first official 2026 forecast later this month.

“After a year and a half of La Nina conditions, the Pacific Ocean has turned favourable for ENSO-neutral. Equatorial Pacific ocean-atmosphere coupling is now stronger than before. El Niño is expected during the early phase of the southwest monsoon and will continue to grow stronger until the fall of the year. El Niño return may presage a weaker monsoon," said Jatin Singh, managing director, Skymet.

The second half of the season is likely to be more erratic, he added.

Skymet expects the core monsoon rainfed zone of central and western India to witness inadequate rainfall. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are likely to receive less than normal rainfall, especially during August-September. The eastern and northeastern parts will be placed better than the rest of the country.

There is a 30% probability of ‘drought’ and a 40% chance of rains being ‘below normal’ this year, according to the weather agency.

Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD, declined to comment.

India received 108% rainfall of the LPA in 2025 against Skymet's prediction of a normal monsoon at around 103% (±5%) of the LPA and the IMD's initial projection of 105% of the LPA.

India's lifeline

The South-West monsoon accounts for nearly 70% of India’s annual rainfall, playing a key role in food security, sustaining livelihoods, and supporting overall economic growth. With only about 55% of the net sown area irrigated, agriculture, which employs 46% of the population and contributes roughly 16% of gross domestic product (GDP), remains heavily dependent on monsoon rains.

Lower rainfall this year could further affect the sowing in the upcoming kharif season amid the US‑Iran war‑linked fertilizer supply disruptions, though the government has maintained that the country has adequate stock.

The monsoon is crucial for sowing kharif crops, and any shortfall increases production expenses due to the high cost of irrigation. As India witnessed above normal monsoon in 2025, the country saw record kharif and rabi production. According to the second advance estimates for 2025-26 released by the farm ministry, kharif foodgrain production is estimated at 174.14 million tonnes and rabi foodgrain production at 174.51mt—approximately 4.6mt (2.8%) and 5.3mt (3.2%) higher, respectively, than last year.

Kharif rice production is estimated at 123.92mt, up from 122.77mt in 2024-25. Rabi rice production is estimated at 16.72 mt. Wheat production is estimated at 120.2mt, up from 117.94mt.

Sudhir Panwar, farm expert and former member of the Uttar Pradesh Planning Commission, said a decline in rainfall is expected to adversely affect agricultural productivity, raising concerns about crop yields and farm incomes nationwide.

"With a significant portion of India’s farmland dependent on monsoon rains, any shortfall could disrupt sowing schedules and hinder crop growth, particularly in rainfed regions. In addition, insufficient rainfall may strain water reservoirs and groundwater levels and will increase the cost of production," he said.

About the Author

Vijay C Roy

Vijay C. Roy is a journalist with over 21 years of experience covering various news beats across different organisations such as Business Standard and The Tribune. In the past, he has covered beats such as finance, auto, MSME, commodities, FMCG, pharmaceutical, agriculture, IT/ITES, infrastructure and start-ups. He joined Mint in February 2025, and covers agriculture, food processing, fertilizers, environment and climate change, bringing over two decades of experience reporting on farm policy, food inflation, crop trade, and rural livelihoods.<br><br>Vijay’s areas of reporting include food security and climate change policies, focusing on their impact on different stakeholders and their implications. His expertise lies in simplifying complex agri-economic issues such as edible oil import dependence, cotton and wheat trends, fertiliser subsidies, and climate-related risks. He has covered key developments including global supply disruptions and evolving trade policies, offering both macroeconomic perspective and field-level context. Known for his credible and balanced reporting, he follows a rigorous, fact-based approach that prioritises accuracy and context. He is driven by a commitment to public interest, aiming to make critical agricultural and economic issues accessible while contributing to informed policy and industry discussions.

Read Entire Article