Monsoon advances amid severe heatwave across north and central India

NEW DELHI: Even as northwest and central India reel under severe heatwave conditions, the southwest monsoon is steadily advancing, raising hopes of relief in the coming days.

The southwest monsoon has advanced into more parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep region, parts of the Bay of Bengal and the remaining areas of the Andaman Sea as of Tuesday, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather office said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to spread further over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal over the next two to three days.

"Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, southwest, eastcentral & westcentral Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during next 2-3 days," IMD said in its latest update.

The IMD has forecast the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on 26 May, ahead of its normal onset date of 1 June, with a model error margin of four days on either side. Last year, the monsoon reached the Kerala coast on 24 May.

The onset over Kerala formally marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon’s progression across the Indian mainland, signalling the transition from peak summer to the rainy season.

The monsoon remains critical for India’s economy, contributing over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. Timely and adequate rains are crucial for the farm sector and rural economy, influencing agricultural output and consumption demand. Despite improvements in irrigation infrastructure, nearly 45% of India’s net sown area continues to depend on rainfall.

As soaring temperatures continued across large parts of the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday urged citizens to take precautions against extreme heat and stay hydrated.

"Different parts of India are witnessing soaring temperatures and the challenges that come with it. This heat is harsh on all of us and I urge you all to take as many precautions as possible. Please stay hydrated, keep water with you when stepping out. Offer a glass of water to others. In weather like this, such kindness goes a long way," Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on X.

On 26 May, maximum temperatures were in the range of 45-47 degrees Celsius over Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, East Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Rajasthan and Vidarbha, and 40-45°C over most other parts of the country except northeast India, the West Himalayan region, the west coast and interior Tamil Nadu. The highest maximum temperature of 47.4°C was recorded at Banda in Uttar Pradesh.

The weather office warned of severe heatwave conditions in parts of Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, east Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh on 28 May. It also forecast heatwave conditions in isolated and some pockets of west Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha during 28-29 May.

Further, heatwave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets of Telangana during 28-29 May, and in Himachal Pradesh and Odisha on 28 May.

Hot and humid weather conditions are also likely to prevail over Odisha during 28-31 May; Konkan & Goa and coastal Gujarat on 28 May; and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & Karaikal, and Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam during 28-29 May.

However, meteorologists see signs of relief emerging. Moderate to severe thunderstorm activity, accompanied by squally winds reaching speeds of up to 70 kmph, is likely over northwest, central and eastern India between 28 and 30 May, potentially bringing down daytime temperatures.

Rainfall activity is also expected to intensify. The IMD has forecast isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over northeast and adjoining eastern India during the next two to three days, while southern peninsular India, particularly Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, is likely to receive enhanced rainfall through 29 May.