Monsoon tracker: IMD warns of heavy rain, thunderstorms and heatwave across several states; check list

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon has not yet reached Kerala by its expected onset date of 26 May. However, the monsoon has continued to advance into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep region, and parts of the Bay of Bengal, PTI reported.

Earlier, the IMD had predicted the monsoon’s arrival over Kerala on 26 May, with a possible variation of four days.

The monsoon usually sets over Kerala around June 1, marking the beginning of the monsoon season (June to September) in the country. Last year, the onset of monsoon happened on May 24, according to the department.

In a statement, the IMD said, "Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into some more parts of southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, southwest, eastcentral and westcentral Bay of Bengal, remaining parts of southeast Bay of Bengal and some parts of northeast Bay of Bengal during the next 2-3 days."

Thundersqualls with wind speeds of 50–60 kmph, gusting up to 70 kmph, are likely over North Interior Karnataka, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Yanam, and Rayalaseema during 28–29 May, and over South Interior Karnataka on 28 May.

In addition, isolated heavy rainfall is expected over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal during 28–29 May; over Kerala and Mahe on 1–2 June; over Lakshadweep on 1 and 2 June; and over Coastal Karnataka, Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, and Telangana.

Isolated to scattered rainfall, along with similar thunderstorm activity and gusty winds, is also expected over Bihar and Odisha during 28–31 May, while Jharkhand is likely to experience these conditions from 28 May to 1 June.

Strong thundersqualls with wind speeds of 60–70 kmph, gusting up to 80 kmph, are expected over Gangetic West Bengal on 28 May and over Bihar on 28 and 29 May. Additionally, thundersqualls with speeds of 50–60 kmph, gusting up to 70 kmph, are likely over Gangetic West Bengal during 28–29 May and over Jharkhand and Odisha from 28–30 May.

Isolated heavy rainfall is also expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands during 29–31 May, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on 28 May, Gangetic West Bengal on 28 May, Bihar during 28–29 May, and Odisha on 29 and 30 May.

In April, the department had said that this year, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country is expected to be below normal.

India is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season -- the long-period average (1971-2020) of the seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm.

Below normal seasonal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, except some areas over Northeast, Northwest, and South Peninsular India, where normal to above normal rainfall can take place.

In its monthly forecast on May 1, the department had said that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were evolving toward El Niño conditions. The last time the El Niño conditions developed was in 2023. Since 2000, these conditions have emerged in 2002, 2009, and 2015.

The Centre is fully prepared to mitigate any adverse impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon on this year's kharif crop, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said on Thursday, as he called for integrated farming and greater self-reliance in pulses and oilseeds, PTI reported.

"Rather than worrying, preparation is required. Contingency plans will be made for affected districts and crop changes will be considered wherever necessary," Chouhan told reporters on the sidelines of the two-day National Kharif Conference here.

The Ministry is in the process of identifying districts for alternative crops and ensuring seed availability in the event of an El Nino impact, he said, PTI reported.

The IMD had, in its first-stage forecast on April 13, projected a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with rainfall likely to be around 92 per cent of the long-period average.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a probable return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July, while the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), in its May 11 ENSO update, said El Nino conditions are likely to emerge during May-June and persist through year-end, PTI reported.

El Nino, characterised by unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is typically associated with drier and hotter conditions in India.

Kharif (summer) sowing has just begun in some parts of India, but it is still in the very early stages. Farmers have started preparing fields for early sowing (especially of short-duration crops such as pulses, coarse cereals, and some cotton) in regions that have received pre-monsoon rains.

Normal Kharif sowing starts in June and peaks in June-July with the arrival and progress of the southwest monsoon.

(With inputs from agencies)