“Never again,” again

“Never again,” the promise and ambition not to repeat the mistakes that led to the tragedy of WWII, has for decades shaped international institutions and security policy. But now, this motto’s sobering influence has waned. Flashpoints are erupting around the world, from the threat of US military intervention in Venezuela, the brutal civil war in Sudan, and the continuous instability in the Middle East, to the war in Ukraine and the growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait. All these crises have global implications.

In the face of these myriad emergencies, it is no surprise that the West, broadly understood, is contending with its greatest challenge in decades. At the root of this challenge lies a sense of civilizational exhaustion, of which our adversaries have taken notice, confident that their time has come.

But has it? More than 1,350 days have passed since Russia launched its three-day “special military operation”—its illegal and unprovoked war of aggression—against Ukraine. At least 1.5 million Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed in the fighting since then, more than a thousand per day. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime, and it alone, bears full responsibility for this heavy toll.

Sadly, we should expect more death and destruction. Russia is striking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure (with both missiles and drones) in an effort to break the country’s will by plunging its cities into winter darkness and bone-chilling cold. Despite mounting economic troubles, the Kremlin is boosting military spending to nearly 40% of the country’s budget. Its planes and drones are violating NATO airspace and disrupting airports—not only in neighboring countries like Estonia, but also in Germany, Denmark, and Sweden. Its war machine is accelerating, and its goal is clear: to intimidate not only Ukrainians, but also Western societies.

Such behavior makes three things clear. First, Putin is not and has not been interested in peace. Second, every territorial breach, every act of arson, every cyberattack is not a mistake, but part of a deliberate strategy to test the resilience of Europe and its allies. And third, these provocations are a sign not of strength but of growing weakness.

Despite the Kremlin’s determination and cruelty in waging its war, its effort to subdue Ukraine has been a catastrophic failure. Russia has lost or crippled more than a million of its citizens (another million or so have fled the country), severed lucrative trade relations with Europe, pushed two new countries (Finland and Sweden) to join NATO, squandered hundreds of billions of dollars, and made itself more dependent on its authoritarian allies. Without their help this war would have ended long ago with the aggressor’s defeat.

But even though Russia is weakened economically, demographically, and politically, it remains a serious threat, both to Europe and to the world order. With the United States and China locked in geopolitical rivalry, Russia is striving to become the third pillar of a global triad, at the expense of Europe. The EU’s challenge is to translate its economic size into global leadership and influence.

That is something only a united Europe can do; a divided one will be paralyzed. The EU therefore faces a stark choice: either it becomes a community capable of action, or it accepts being reduced to a playground for superpowers—at least in data collection and trade.

The only path to success here runs through deeper cooperation on security, migration, technology, and foreign policy. That is how we can build the strength needed to deter aggressors, maintain social cohesion, defend the values on which our civilization is based, and—last but not least—earn the respect of our allies, primarily the US.

The EU and the US have the most beneficial economic relationship in the world. Together, they account for roughly 44% of global GDP and almost 30% of global trade in goods and services. Both sides remain each other’s largest trading partners and investors, with millions of jobs depending on their cooperation. Questioning this relationship must not be done lightly, because revisionist regimes—especially in Moscow—are watching closely. Putin is monitoring the shifting terrain and may see 2026 as a chance to test the West’s resolve through stepped-up hybrid warfare, cyberattacks, or energy pressure.

The Western alliance retains great potential and appeal. It has underpinned global prosperity, democratic stability, and technological progress for decades. To let it unravel would not only weaken the West; it would redefine the world as we know it. A divided West opens the door to a chaotic future, where democratic values and human rights give way to brute force. Disunity will cost us dearly.

Our global order, based on respect for international law, is certainly imperfect—as are all human creations. But despite its flaws, it remains the best tool we have to prevent global chaos. It should be constantly updated and amended, but by means of debate and negotiation, not through wars and extermination.

Either we defend it, or our grandparents’ solemn promise—“Never again”—will soon be broken, only eight decades after they made it. That prospect should keep all of us awake at night.

Radosław Sikorski is Poland’s minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister.