Never Bet Against Elon Musk? Online Bettors Are Doing Just That And Making Millions

Last Updated:January 25, 2026, 22:51 IST

Users are betting against Musk’s high-profile plans, including launching a robotaxi service in California and forming a third political party in the US.

CEO of SpaceX and Tesla Elon Musk. (AFP photo)

Some online bettors are making tens of thousands of dollars — and in some cases millions — by wagering that Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk will fail to deliver on his ambitious promises.

According to a report by NBC News, on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, users are betting against Musk’s high-profile plans, including launching a robotaxi service in California and forming a third political party in the United States.

Despite his reputation for bold achievements, such as reusable rockets and Tesla’s meteoric rise, Musk’s track record on timelines and follow-through has been uneven, giving bettors opportunities to profit.

David Bensoussan, a top-ranked Polymarket user, has turned nearly $10,000 into a tidy return by wagering that Musk would not launch a political party last year. He also successfully bet against Musk buying the cable channel MSNBC, leaving his White House role, and meeting deadlines for Tesla’s “Full Self-Driving" software.

Bensoussan has made over $36,000 on Musk-related bets alone and around $1.4 million in total profits on Polymarket.

“He has a habit of exaggerating timelines, and of saying he’s going to do these amazing things and attaching more immediacy than what his intent may necessarily be," Bensoussan told NBC News.

Musk’s own fan base, by contrast, often follows the saying: “Never bet against Elon." Despite this, his public statements and ambitious targets have become a hotbed for prediction markets, which have surged in popularity since 2024 after a federal appeals court cleared the way for event-based contracts, including election outcomes.

Musk appears amused by the phenomenon. He frequently posts about prediction markets on X, and his AI company, xAI, has integrations with both Kalshi and Polymarket.

At any given time, dozens of markets focus on Musk — from Tesla product launches to how often he tweets or whether he will buy a major sports team.

Economics experts see the growing trend as a reality check on Musk’s ambitious claims.

“What these markets potentially bring to the table is a pretty good disciplining device to people making claims," said Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University.

News tech Never Bet Against Elon Musk? Online Bettors Are Doing Just That And Making Millions

Read More