Nuclear Curbs, Sanctions, War: What Are The Possible Scenarios If Trump-Iran Deal Is Finalised

Last Updated:May 29, 2026, 21:18 IST

US and Iran near 60 day ceasefire extension, Trump to lift naval blockade and reopen Strait of Hormuz, proposed deal would ease some sanctions but deep nuclear disputes remain

The United States and Iran are moving closer to extending their fragile ceasefire by another 60 days, raising hopes of a temporary relief in the ongoing tensions in West Asia. However, major disagreements over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief and security in the Strait of Hormuz continue to cloud the prospects of a lasting peace deal.

US President Donald Trump, on Friday, in a social media post said, the US naval blockade on Iranian ports will be lifted and ships stranded in the Strait of Hormuz “may start the process of heading home."

“Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of ‘heading home!’," he wrote.

A Look At The Possible Scenarios If Trump-Iran Deal Is Finalised

If US President Donald Trump finalises a peace deal with Iran, it could reshape security, oil trade and diplomatic relations across West Asia. The proposed agreement under discussion includes extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing some sanctions on Iran and beginning fresh negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme.

One major outcome could be the stabilisation of global oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz handles nearly a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil trade. A full reopening of the route would reduce supply concerns and may help cool crude oil prices, which had surged during the conflict.

Another likely scenario is partial sanctions relief for Iran. Reports suggest the US could allow limited Iranian oil exports and release some frozen Iranian assets in phases if Tehran complies with the agreement. This could improve Iran’s economy, which has faced years of sanctions and trade restrictions.

The deal may also open the door for broader nuclear negotiations. While current talks are focused mainly on ceasefire and maritime security, both sides are expected to continue discussions on uranium enrichment, inspections and nuclear restrictions during the next phase.

However, significant risks remain. Iran continues to insist on retaining uranium enrichment rights, while hardliners in the US Republican Party have opposed concessions to Tehran. Analysts say disagreements over sanctions, military presence in the Gulf and nuclear monitoring could still derail the process.

If the agreement holds, it could reduce immediate military tensions in West Asia and restore shipping movement through the Gulf. But experts say the proposed deal currently appears aimed more at preventing another escalation than achieving a final long-term settlement between Washington and Tehran.

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