Operation Epic Fury sparks a high-stakes balancing act in India

It’s now day 7 of Operation Epic Fury, launched jointly by the US and Israel on 28 February. It’s what we were all warned about for years, perhaps even decades – a conflagration in West Asia. As it stood, Iran was at its weakest in decades and Israel perhaps saw it as too good an opportunity to pass up. TheWashington Post reported how Israel and Saudi Arabia pushed US President Donald Trump to launch the campaign despite the US being unsure that Iran posed an imminent threat.

Here’s what we know. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on 28 February. If the US was hoping for a regime collapse after the decapitation strike, well, it hasn’t happened. An Iranian leadership council that includes President Masoud Pezeshkian, former nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, senior cleric Alireza Arafi, and head of the judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei seems in charge.

The initial US call for Iranians to rise up hasn’t inspired them to do so, it seems. Given that one of the first US-Israel strikes seemingly hit a girls' school, killing 150, is it surprising that Trump’s call to arms hasn't had any takers yet?

Trump, meanwhile, has changed his reasons for striking Iran multiple times. First the attack wascharacterized as defensive, intended to eliminate “imminent threats” from Iran. Trump later added he had a “good feeling” that Iran was planning to attack the US. In private briefings to Congress, US officialsacknowledged there was no evidence showing Iran was preparing to strike. Instead, they said Iran’s missiles and proxy forces posed a threat to US personnel and allies in the region.

The latest is that Trump wants a say in who administers Iran. Having a pliable government in Tehran doing Washington’s bidding would be immensely helpful, as Venezuela showed. But will this suit the Iranian people? Will they accept someone seen as installed by the US? Will this sow the seeds of deeper chaos, like in Iraq and Libya? There are a lot of unanswered questions here.

For its part, Iran has been retaliating, firing missiles and launching drone attacks at Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia. Even Oman, which was playing mediator between the US and Iran, wasn’t spared. Azerbaijan and Turkey were also hit, news reports said. Perhaps this is natural, given that the Iranian administration is fighting for its survival. China, once seen as a major ally, hasn’t exactly come to its aid. Neither has Russia, it seems, though Moscow could be excused given its war with Ukraine.

Iran has also closed the Straits of Hormuz – something it has threatened to do whenever tensions have been high. This time it carried out the threat. Several hundred cargo ships, including Indian ones, are stuck there. That means much of the oil bound for Asia and other parts of the world isn’t making its way out.

A CNBC report on Friday, 6 March, said oil prices had increased, with Brent crude rising 2.2% to trade at $87.27 a barrel, a 52-week high. Oil prices are something to keep a close eye on, given that Trump has warned that the war could stretch on for four to five weeks or even longer. This uncertainty over oil has prompted the US to give India a 30-day waiver from sanctions on buying Russian oil.

This brings us to India. Amid the re-ordering of West Asia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has kept in touch with all Arab Gulf countries. That’s natural, given that millions of Indians live there and it’s where most of our oil comes from. There has also been an imperceptible shift away from Iran. Notice that India did not condemn the killing of Ayatollah Khamenei. External affairs minister S Jaishankar did speak to his Iranian counterpart and foreign secretary Vikram Misri did sign the condolence book opened at the Iranian embassy in New Delhi, but that came later.

Given that it is Trump that has launched Operation Epic Fury with Israel, India has to perform a delicate balancing act between the US and Iran. Iran has been the loser in the past, too, when it has come to a binary choice with the US. Given Trump’s unpredictability and quite a bit resting on good ties with the US, India’s choices aren’t perhaps altogether surprising.

That may be why India hasn’t said anything about a US submarine that torpedoed and sank an Iranian naval frigate on its way back from India’s International Fleet Review (IFR) at Visakhapatnam in February. Uncomfortable questions are being asked—for instance, whether India was aware of a US submarine lurking so close to Indian shores. If it didn't, the Indian Navy may have to work overtime on its maritime domain awareness techniques. The sinking of the Iranian ship in India’s backyard does put India in an embarrassing situation.

Not to take away from the gravity of what’s happening in West Asia, but one can’t help mentioning the many memes showing North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as a bystander in the escalating situation.

One of the memes shows Kim dabbing his eyes, with the caption: “When you have the best toys but no one calls you to play the game.” Yup – certainly left out.

Another shows a jubilant Kim hugging a North Korean soldier, with the caption: “Kim Jong Un when one missile mistakenly lands in North Korea”. Yet another shows Kim sitting at the shoulder of a soldier scanning a screen for incoming missiles. Kim orders the soldier to "refresh it again", to which the soldier replies: “Sir, still no missiles headed our direction."

There’s also a meme that shows Kim standing flanked by senior generals, squinting at the horizon. “That one looks like a missile, right?” Kim asks. The response? "No sir, it's a bird".

Shah, 35, is a former mayor of Kathmandu. He dominated the political campaign, proving immensely popular among many sections of Nepali society. His centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party, founded three years ago, was leading in 37 seats. Oli’s established Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) was leading in three. The centrist Nepali Congress, led by 49-year-old Gagan Thapa, the country’s oldest party, was leading in five.

Nepal elects 275 members to the House of Representatives — 165 under the first-past-the-post system and 110 under the proportional representation system.

The elections follow the unseating of Oli’s government in September, following youth-led anti-corruption protests. The polls have been largely peaceful, inclusive and on schedule despite various misgivings, for which interim prime minister Sushila Karki deserves credit.

India will need to craft its strategy anew to deal with the new leadership in that country.