Prudent path: India should stay resolutely neutral as wars erupt in a world without rules

Further, although it may tilt towards one side in any conflict, India has stakes on all sides. It is thus not in India’s interests to take any side over the US-Israel war on Iran, the prolonged Russian war on Ukraine or possibly a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Let them fight it out. The winners will have to deal with India anyway.

In a different world, at a different time, I have argued for New Delhi to support the American war in Afghanistan and Pakistan. After Russia invaded Ukraine, I called for New Delhi to side with the majority of its economic partners in opposition to Moscow. I have constantly irritated the strategic establishment in New Delhi for years by advocating for power projection and expeditionary capacity far beyond our immediate region.

The situation is vastly different now. While we must accelerate both our defensive and power projection capabilities, among others, by doubling our defence budget, there is little we can gain by involvement that we cannot by non-involvement. We do not have our dogs in most of the fights going on around the world.

Our policies then should aim for two things.

First, manage the consequences of international conflicts; and second, ensure that those conflicts do not approach our region and homeland. Neither aim is easy to achieve, but both are within the capacity of the Indian state and society.

The consequences of the West Asian war that affect us have to do with the security of our nationals, oil and gas supplies, trade and financial flows. India has evacuated large numbers of its nationals from war zones before and is both capable and alert to this task.

A major evacuation this time will be a lot harder than previous ones, though. Even so, Indian armed forces along with the maritime and aviation industry can pull this off. The navy, equipped with air defence capabilities, might also have to be tasked with securing shipping lanes.

Energy security and risks to commercial shipping are more difficult problems to solve. US President Donald Trump has announced that America will absorb war risks by underwriting insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has blocked. If this turns into implementable policy, India will get some breathing room. If not, New Delhi should be prepared to exercise the Russian-oil option, braving threats of higher American tariffs.

Reasonable people in Washington cannot begrudge India’s purchase of Russian hydrocarbons in response to the impact of a war that was started by the US. The diplomacy of managing consequences is always a balancing act. It doesn’t have to be elegant. It just has to be effective enough until things change. Economic policy will have to deal with the outbreak and fallout of the Iran war.

The second task is to ensure that all foreign wars are fought far from our shores and borders. This has both an external and internal dimension.

Externally, New Delhi should be firm that while it understands that countries have their own reasons to go to war, India and its immediate region are not in the fray. There might be commercial arrangements with respect to defence trade that will continue to be honoured, but countries should not expect Indian military support as they fight their wars. This won’t endear us to our partners, but there is little room for romanticism in today’s world.

The internal task will be to politically manage differences of opinion in a way that doesn’t make us more vulnerable to external threats and weaken already frayed social harmony. Law enforcement authorities in states and in New Delhi should be aware that putting too strong a lid on dissenting opinions can raise risks. Indeed, allowing civil society groups to express their views on foreign policy, especially if it differs from the official line, is particularly useful when pursuing a policy of non-involvement.

As conflicts rage around the world, the answer to the question, ‘Which side are you on?’ should be ‘Our own.’ This means safeguarding the Indian republic by ensuring national unity and high economic growth as well as defence of our borders.

When things settle down in the fullness of time, the victors and survivors of foreign conflicts will need India one way or the other, regardless of their disposition towards the country before and during the war.

It is possible that some outcomes will be adverse for us, but we will have to deal with them just the same.

Tailpiece: As an udasina (neutral and detached), there are some things New Delhi should do publicly and others privately. Mixing the two up can be embarrassing at best and seriously damage our interests at worst.

The author is co-founder and director of The Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy.