Rising sun 2.0: As Japan shrugs off its pacifist shackles, India could make significant gains

As India is part of the four-nation Quad—with Japan, the US and Australia as other members—Tokyo’s move opens up a possibility worth close consideration by New Delhi.

We could diversify our set of high-tech arms suppliers to include a non-hegemonic power with which we have had good relations for eight decades. This is heartening in itself.

That Japan is slowly giving up the pacifist stance it adopted after World War II could work out quite well for us too. In a world increasingly cleaved apart by geo-rivalry between the US and China, another power centre could reduce bipolarity and make space for other voices of influence.

Given how the US has been disposed towards its allies lately, Tokyo’s ties with Washington may matter less as we go along, even as it remains at odds with Beijing.

For a country like India that has long cherished strategic autonomy based on a position of global neutrality, a multipolar world offers greater scope for manoeuvre: we can work with power blocs without being drawn into any bloc that might burden us with a need to fight for causes that are not ours.

Old certainties of power distribution have been coming apart. The US-led Nato is the West’s foremost military alliance. While it will probably not be disbanded formally, it has been battered so hard by the current White House that it may never recover.

The upshot is likely to be a defence posture taken by Europe on its own, with France and the UK offering nuclear armoury. Germany has spotted in defence production an alternative to its auto industry, which faces decline, and hopes to gain from boosts in defence spending across the continent (and perhaps afar too). In time, Europe could emerge as a balancing force that is capable of significant power projection.

Shifts in Asia, however, could prove more impactful in our part of the world. East Asia has its own tensions—notably, a standoff over Taiwan—with China slowly asserting itself. A Japan that is unsure of America’s defence shield would surely not let itself be exposed to Chinese designs of East Asian hegemony.

Of course, China already dominates the East. While its economy is no longer booming, its heft now has such an air of inevitability that it should not surprise us if Japan, South Korea and Asean’s 11 members seek some form of accommodation with the regional hegemon. But they would also want to counter it with their own strength, fortified by pacts of mutual assistance.

Japan does not have a military pact with Taiwan, but its Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae recently said her country would be ready to take countermeasures in case of an attack on the self-governed island. This rubbed Beijing the wrong way.

Meanwhile, Tokyo seems keener than ever to escape the constraints of its US-imposed constitution and the Sanae government has the two-thirds Diet majority needed to rid Japan of its pacifist Article 9.

If it goes ahead, many Asian nations with bitter war memories may grow wary of it. Even so, it could easily forge closer ties with countries that do not share that alarm—like India.

The US may not care much for the Quad anymore. But New Delhi could strengthen ties with a Tokyo that’s finally ready to shrug off its pacifist shackles and strike high-tech hardware deals with friendly countries.