Rubio says Indians not targeted by visa overhaul. A 38.5% drop in H-1B registrations suggests otherwise

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that sweeping changes to America's visa system are part of a global modernisation effort with no specific focus on India. But with H-1B registrations down 38.5 per cent, India's top IT firms losing thousands of approvals, and new rules forcing green card applicants to leave the country, the numbers paint a starkly different picture.

Rubio was emphatic in his acknowledgement of the Indian contribution to the American economy, noting that Indian companies have invested more than $20 billion into the US and expressing a clear desire to see that figure grow.

"First of all, I accept the contribution that Indians have made to the US economy. Over $20 billion has been invested in the US economy by Indian companies. We want that number to continue to increase," Rubio said.

On the question of J1, F1, and H-1B visas, he was equally direct in pushing back against the notion that India was being singled out.

"The changes that are happening now are not India-specific; it is global, it's being applied across the world," Rubio said. "We are in a period of modernisation."

H-1B visa registrations dropped 38.5 per cent in fiscal year 2027, falling from 343,981 applications in fiscal year 2026 to just 211,600. The agency attributed the decline in part to its own stricter selection filters, which now heavily favour applicants holding advanced degrees and commanding higher salaries.

"The number of properly submitted registrations plummeted by 38.5 per cent, from 3,43,981 in fiscal year 2026 to just 2,11,600 in fiscal year 2027," the USCIS said.

The agency framed the shift as a deliberate correction.

"We're approving more applicants with advanced degrees and higher salaries, especially those who studied at US universities. An overwhelming 71.5 per cent of selected aliens hold a US master's degree or higher, compared to 57 per cent last year," it said.

The USCIS also underscored a shift away from lower wage brackets.

"This year, only 17.7 per cent of all selected registrations were in the lowest wage category," the agency said. "This data is a clear sign that the days of abusing the programme with mass, low-wage registrations are over, and that the programme is better serving its intended purpose of attracting highly skilled foreign workers and protecting the wages, working conditions, and job opportunities of American workers."

India's six largest information technology services firms, namely Tata Consultancy Services, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra, collectively received 11,041 H-1B visas as of 31 March 2026. That represents a 40 per cent decline from the previous year, when the same group of companies received approximately 18,469 visas.

Among these firms, the contrasts are sharp. Infosys, India's second-largest IT company, received 3,195 approvals, the highest in the group and notably the only firm among the six to record an increase over the prior year. At the other end, Mumbai-based Tata Consultancy Services suffered the steepest drop in the cohort, with approvals falling by 3,242 from a year earlier to approximately 2,885.

"We've had a migratory crisis in the United States. This is not because of India, but broadly, we have had over 20 million people illegally enter the United States over the last few years, and we've had to address that challenge," he said. “Everything that you do as a country needs to be in your national interest, and that includes your immigration policy.”

He also framed the United States as fundamentally open to legal immigration, drawing on his own family history.

"The United States, I believe, is the most welcoming country in the world for immigration. Every single year, a million people, roughly, become permanent residents of the United States and contribute greatly," Rubio said. "My parents entered the United States as permanent residents in 1956 from Cuba. It's a process that's enriched us."

Under the proposed changes, the prevailing wage for entry-level foreign workers would rise to $97,746 per year, up from $73,279, a jump of 33.39 per cent. Level II workers would see wages rise to $123,212 from $98,987, a 24.47 per cent increase.

Level III positions would move to $147,333 from $121,979, a 20.79 per cent hike, while Level IV, covering the most experienced workers, would rise to $175,464 from $144,202, an increase of 21.68 per cent.

The Department of Labour has argued that the existing wage levels were set more than two decades ago and no longer adequately protect American workers from being undercut by cheaper foreign labour.

On 19 September last year, President Donald Trump signed a proclamation restricting entry to H-1B workers whose petitions are not accompanied by a payment of $100,000.

"From now on, an alien who is in the US temporarily and wants a green card must return to their home country to apply, except in extraordinary circumstances," said Zach Kahler, a spokesman for US Citizenship and Immigration Services.

The change upends the lives of H-1B visa holders who may have spent years, in some cases more than a decade, building careers and lives in the United States under the expectation that they could complete the green card process without leaving. For Indian nationals in particular, this is a profound disruption. India and China face green card backlogs stretching across multiple decades, meaning those affected face not just an inconvenient trip home, but a potentially years-long wait before they can return.