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Summary
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's estimate of our nuclear arsenal offers us an occasion to take the high ground and restate our long-held position on nukes. The world also needs to note South Asia’s outlier dynamics of deterrence.
“The Buddha has smiled” was the success code for India’s Pokhran nuclear test of 1974 that New Delhi described as “peaceful.” Blasts in 1998 saw the country adopt an eminently sensible doctrine on nukes: ‘No first use.’
The extent to which that smile may have widened in 2025 is a matter of curiosity stoked by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s release of its SIPRI Yearbook 2026. By SIPRI’s estimates, as of January, India had 12 ‘deployed’ nuclear warheads as part of its stockpile of 190; last year, we had 180 in stock, with none mounted on missiles or located at bases with operational armed forces.
Since arsenals are subject to secrecy, we cannot expect the Centre to comment on deployments. But since we live in a heavily armed world, it should not surprise us either.
The SIPRI report reveals a grim global scenario. It pegs last year’s conflict-related fatalities at 238,000, down 4.2% from 2024 but still too high. As estimated, the world’s military spending hit $2.9 trillion last year, one third of it done by the US and 12% by China. India was ranked as the world’s fifth biggest spender—with $92.1 billion spent—and second largest arms importer (exceeded only by war-ravaged Ukraine).
SIPRI has flagged notable trends such as the use of AI-assisted weapons, plans for arms in space (like America’s Golden Dome project) and the risks of biological warfare. The legal and ethical grey zones being explored are a cause for concern, but a likely setback to nuclear restraint may prove worse.
The US-Russia New Start treaty expired this February, lifting their mutually agreed stockpile caps. By SIPRI data, the US has 3,700 usable warheads, of which 1,770 are deployed, while Russia has 4,400 with 1,796 out of silos or ready to use. As per SIPRI, these form the bulk of the planet’s 9,745 nukes, with 4,012 deployed. China upped its total pile by 20 to 620 last year (34 of them ready), but could not possibly need more.
The trouble, as SIPRI views it, is that if a build-up by nuke-armed states is seen to outpace warhead retirement, the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 that bars others from acquiring nukes could lose credibility.
After all, nuke-holders have done little to disarm, thus failing their end of the bargain. Tardy progress on this front was the big reason why India never signed the NPT. Today, it could grant other countries just the cover they need to develop these weapons. Iran, for example, may see it as the only way to thwart attacks.
This is an apt moment for India to amplify its voice. Our no-first-use stance gives us some high ground in a region where we face two nuclear powers bent on border hostility.
On India-Pakistan rivalry, SIPRI’s report refers to last year’s conflict as an example of events that “challenge the logic of nuclear deterrence.” While Pakistan has an estimated 170 nukes, with none deployed, the fact that no mushroom cloud arose speaks of South Asia’s very own dynamics.
Since it’s one big landmass, ‘mutually assured destruction’ would apply even if a single bomb goes off. This might have given New Delhi space for the use of conventional forces to fight Pakistan’s hostile designs. Proximity may alter the calculus, but the logic of a nuclear shield can hardly be judged by an outlier case.
As for India’s arsenal, we should deploy diplomacy to reiterate that for a safer world, we’d all need to disarm. Failing which, we too have sovereign interests to defend.
English (US) ·