Super El Niño 2026 India impact: Which states face drought, which face floods? Which cities will be hit hardest?

India will be entering its 2026 monsoon season under the shadow of one of the most alarming climate signals in years, as a potentially historic El Niño event forms in the Pacific Ocean and threatens to disrupt rainfall across large parts of the country from August onwards.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) released its first long-range forecast for 2026 on 13 April, warning that the southwest monsoon, which runs from June to September and serves as India's primary rain season, is likely to deliver below-normal or deficient rainfall this year.

The driver behind that forecast is a rapidly strengthening El Niño event that climate scientists say could rival the catastrophic cycles of 1997 and 2015.

The Pacific has already begun showing clear signs of warming. Sea surface temperatures in key monitoring regions are currently running at approximately 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, a level that scientists consider an early but significant indicator of El Niño conditions taking hold.

Meteorologists have noted that the transition from the previous La Niña cycle is happening faster than usual, a pattern that does not occur every year and that experts say may be the first stage of a more powerful event.

More strikingly, the probability of a deficient season, defined as rainfall falling below 90 per cent of the long-period average, stands at 35 per cent. That figure is more than double the historical probability of 16 per cent, underscoring the degree to which this year's outlook departs from a typical monsoon season.

Both the IMD and Skymet, India's leading private weather forecasting agency, suggest that the first half of the monsoon, particularly June, may remain relatively stable. The more serious deterioration is expected to arrive in August and September, when El Niño's influence on atmospheric circulation will be felt most acutely.

Under that classification system, an event in which temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above the historical average is designated as strong, while anything above 2 degrees Celsius qualifies as a super El Niño.

Some current forecasting models are projecting temperature rises beyond 2 degrees Celsius before the end of the year, with certain scenarios showing anomalies exceeding 2.5 degrees Celsius.

That would place this event among the most powerful on record. Forecasting agencies including the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are monitoring the situation closely and have noted growing evidence that conditions may strengthen further into late 2026.

According to India Today report, India's northern, western, and central regions face the highest risk of dry conditions, with prolonged drought and agricultural losses among the primary concerns. Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are considered particularly vulnerable during August and September.

The core monsoon belt across central and western India is expected to receive inadequate rainfall, with specific areas of Madhya Pradesh, including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar, and Narmadapuram, all forecast to receive below-normal precipitation.

For Delhi-NCR, which is already experiencing worsening extreme heat, there is little prospect of monsoon relief. Drier and hotter conditions are expected to persist well into the season.

Chennai and coastal Tamil Nadu face the opposite problem. Rather than drought, these areas are at heightened risk of excessive rainfall and flooding, a pattern consistent with previous El Niño years when the city suffered severe inundation.

Regions expected to be largely spared from significant deficits include Ladakh, parts of Rajasthan, the northeast, and the northern south peninsula including Telangana.

During the last comparable super El Niño in 2015 to 2016, actual monsoon rainfall reached only 86 per cent of the long-period average, triggering widespread drought conditions across the country.

The Marathwada region of Maharashtra recorded a 40 per cent rainfall deficit that year, devastating crops and deepening farmer distress across one of India's most agriculturally vulnerable zones. Chennai, simultaneously, was submerged under floodwaters for days, resulting in deaths and widespread destruction.

In the El Niño year of 2023, India recorded a 36 per cent rainfall deficit in August alone. The worst-affected districts included Satara, Nashik, and Raigad in Maharashtra, West Nimar in Madhya Pradesh, Balangir in Odisha, and Korba in Chhattisgarh.

Historically, the regions most prone to drought during El Niño cycles include southeastern Maharashtra, northern Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, and Rajasthan.

Reportedly, 60 per cent of Indian farmers are entirely dependent on monsoon rainfall for the kharif crop season, making the stakes for this year's rains exceptionally high. The IMD is expected to release an updated forecast in the final week of May, which will provide greater clarity on the trajectory of the El Niño cycle and its likely impact on regional rainfall distribution.