The IMF’s critique of India’s economic statistics is not a cause for alarm but a cue to improve data quality

In its report for India, part of its 2025 Article IV consultation, released just a few days before the ministry of statistics and programme implementation (MoSPI) released that cracker of a growth figure, the Fund has retained its ‘C’ grade for India’s national account statistics (or GDP numbers) on a scale from A to D. In the IMF’s view, Indian data has “some shortcomings that somewhat hamper surveillance.”

That delightfully vague statement would leave most trackers of our macro numbers no wiser about the precise nature of these shortcomings.

What is undoubtedly true is that, as with any estimates of macro fundamentals, there is scope for improvement. We need regular revisions of national accounts, price data and other key statistics in accordance with the world’s best practices, just as the government must conduct a population census on a priority basis and publish consolidated general fiscal accounts without delay.

But what is equally true is that statistical revisions, whether in India or in advanced economies, are par for the course.

The more important question, therefore, is whether India’s revisions are free of political motives—unlike in Greece and Argentina, both of which were found to have fudged their data.

Also, whether we are taking steps to improve our methodology, coverage and transparency. On balance, the answer to both questions is ‘yes.’ MoSPI has been working hard to improve key macro indicators. The Index of Industrial Production is slated to change. So is the Consumer Price Index; this gauge of retail inflation will not only update its base year from 2011-12 to 2022-23, but also alter its basket of items being tracked on the basis of India’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey of 2023-24.

As for GDP estimates, MoSPI has launched several surveys, including one of the services sector that accounts for almost 60% of our GDP but lacked separate estimation. While critics worry about weakly captured informal sector activity and the ‘deflator’ used by MoSPI to adjust nominal growth for inflation, some progress has clearly been made.

Timely and reliable data is the bedrock of sound policy formulation. India’s periodic labour force survey is now done every month, offering a better picture of unemployment, while the survey of unincorporated enterprises provides a clearer snapshot of a large chunk of the economy. Unlike earlier, when informal sector data was picked up only at the time of base revision, it will now be done regularly, helping make GDP estimates more robust.

This is not to say that official numbers should not be held up to scrutiny. They must. The deflator deployed to calculate real GDP growth, for instance, needs either fixing or a explanatory note from MoSPI.

In recent months, this ministry has done a remarkable job of keeping the public informed. India’s political class, regardless of the government in power, must also be given its due.

Unlike in the US, where President Donald Trump sacked the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics over joblessness data, we have not seen the head of a department fired for doing his or her job. Indian data may be imperfect, but the fault is not in our stats as much as in our operational constraints.