The week in charts: GDP projections, Centre’s financial discrepancy

Growth downgrade

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has released its latest estimates for India's GDP projection, lowering the growth forecast for 2025-26 to 6.5% from its earlier estimate of 6.7% given in April. The downward revision reflects the negative impact of US tariff policies and a weakened demand and investment climate. India Ratings and Research has lowered its projections even lower to 6.3%, cutting 30 basis points from an earlier estimate. With this, GDP growth is estimated to be 6.2-6.5% in 2025-26 by all major agencies.

Export dependency

India exported electronic goods worth $40.9 billion in 2024-25, but imported $102.6 billion, making it a net importer by a huge margin. AMintanalysis of trade data shows that electronics exports are highly concentrated, with the US accounting for 37.3% of total exports, dramatically up from about 14% in 2010-11. Other top destinations include the UAE, Netherlands, UK, and Italy, but their shares remain modest at 4.8-9% in 2024-25, showing little growth over the past 15 years despite India's export push.

Fiscal conundrum

₹21.3 trillion: That is the unrealized tax revenue for 2022-23, marking an increase of ₹5.47 trillion from the previous year,Mintreported, quoting the latest CAG report presented in Parliament. The audit report highlights gaps in transparency and data consistency regarding compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act. The report noted that there was a discrepancy of ₹18,000 crore in the fiscal deficit figure between Union government finance accounts (UGFA) for 2022-23 and the budget at a glance (BAG) for 2024-25.

Sudden resignation

In the midst of the ongoing monsoon session, vice president Jagdeep Dhankhar tendered his resignation to the President, citing health reasons, cutting short his term scheduled to end in August 2027. He was the 14th sitting vice president of India and also served as the chairman of the upper house of Parliament. With the sudden resignation, Dhankhar has become one of three vice presidents to quit mid-term. With a tenure of two years and 344 days, his presidency is also the third shortest in the history of independent India.

Investor sell-off

After three months of fund inflow, foreign investors turned net sellers for most of July due to US-India trade tensions and mixed corporate financial results, PTI reported. According to the latest NSDL data, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pulled out ₹4,508 crore from equities this month (until 24 July). This follows net inflow of ₹14,590 crore in June, ₹19,860 crore in May, and ₹4,223 crore in April. Earlier, FPIs withdrew ₹3,973 crore in March, ₹34,574 crore in February, and ₹78,027 crore in January.

Domestic driven

₹60,681 crore: That is the forex savings from nearly 8% year-on-year decline in coal imports during 2024-25, the coal ministry said this week. India imported 243.62 million tonnes of coal in 2024-25, down from 264.53 million tonnes in 2023-24, which resulted in a reduction in forex savings, coal and mines minister G. Kishan Reddy said. This decline in imports comes amid rising domestic coal production, which increased 5% to 1.05 billion tonnes in 2024-25.

Cost advantage

Indian companies overcame persistent weakness in demand as profits surged at the fastest pace in at least five quarters during the June quarter, driven by falling raw material costs, showed a Mint analysis. Among 182 companies that declared their first quarter results of 2025-26, aggregate revenue rose 5.4% year-on-year, but net profits jumped 23% as raw material costs declined 14% over the year—the steepest drop in eight quarters. Excluding BFSI companies, net profits soared nearly 40% from the previous year.

Chart of the week: Digital revolution

Mobile phones have emerged as the growing investment tool for retail investors, accounting for over a quarter of all monthly transactions since April 2024, according to BSE data. This represents a dramatic surge from just 5% in June 2019 and 10% in June 2020, with mobile trading peaking at nearly 29% in May 2025.

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