Trump’s Brazil Blow-Up Raises Stakes for Leftist Summit in Chile

Fresh off Donald Trump’s threat to slap 50% tariffs on Brazil, a summit of leftist leaders risks triggering a broader backlash from the White House.

Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Monday will receive Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, along with Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Spain’s Pedro Sánchez and Uruguay’s Yamandú Orsi for the one-day conference in Santiago. The meeting’s goals of fomenting multilateralism and combating disinformation risk provoking a backlash from Trump, who floated tariffs against the BRICS bloc of emerging-market countries when they criticized his levies at a separate gathering earlier this month. Then he trained his rage on host-nation Brazil.

This summit now puts a bullseye on leaders like Boric, who has so far evaded Trump’s threats, as well as others like Petro, who is navigating souring relations with the US. On July 16, Trump said he will send letters to over 150 countries notifying them of tariffs in the latest sign of his strategy for weaponizing trade. As many nations strive to work together to blunt the effects of protectionism, Trump is showing he won’t hesitate to lash out against critics.

What Bloomberg Economics Says

“We had a very recent precedent that could repeat itself. We’re seeing objectives that are at odds with Trump and also progressive leaders that are teaming up, potentially with a statement that he can feel is also criticism of himself and his policies.”

— Jimena Zúñiga, Latin America Geoeconomics Analyst

Monday’s meeting mirrors growing cooperation in other regions of the world such as the European Union, which is preparing to step up engagement with countries like Canada that have been hit by Trump’s tariffs and ultimatums. 

The gathering in Chile marks the first formal, face-to-face encounter of the group following an online conference in February this year. Participants will advance in their “shared position in favor of multilateralism, democracy and global cooperation based on social justice,” according to a Chilean government statement. The group’s proposals will be presented and developed further at its next meeting on the sidelines of September’s United Nations General Assembly.

“These are countries that are not inclined to just bow down and make concessions to Washington, given the very coercive and punitive approach that Washington is taking,” said Kenneth Roberts, a Cornell University professor of government who focuses on Latin American politics.

Big Gamble

In that context, the summit is a particularly big gamble for Boric as host, given that his government is weak and counts the US as its biggest trading partner after China. 

“There are scenarios where the United States could take economic actions, at least in the short term, which would be detrimental to Chile,” Roberts said.

Lula presided over July’s BRICS conference in Rio de Janeiro which released a declaration criticizing trade protectionism and airstrikes on Iran, both clear swipes at Trump even if it didn’t mention him or the US by name. Days later, the US president threatened aggressive tariffs on goods from Latin America’s largest economy, heavily citing political reasons.

Monday’s event in Santiago will end up being quite different from the broader BRICS gathering, which included China, Iran and Saudi Arabia and addressed sensitive issues like dollarization, said Brian Winter, executive vice president of Americas Society and Council of the Americas. As a result, the odds of a response from Trump are lower, he said.

The event also gives Boric’s team an opportunity to learn from Lula’s recent experiences.

“I suspect that the Chilean foreign ministry, which is the host government, will be cautious and try to ensure that whatever collective statements are made are free of inflammatory language,” Winter said.

There’s scant room for error. In Brazil, polls show more voters rallying around Lula as he stands up against Trump’s coercion. In contrast, Boric’s and Petro’s high disapproval rates mean there’s little they can do to reverse public sentiment, said Zúñiga, from Bloomberg Economics.

Boric’s outgoing administration is already on alert as it awaits details on Trump’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper. The red metal is Chile’s top export product.

Any backlash from Trump stands to “elicit some criticism because some Chileans may say, ‘hey Boric, this just happened to Brazil, you should have been more careful,’” Zúñiga said.

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