Trump’s power play risks global blowback

The answer is hidden in the events of the last week. Let’s look at how other nations reacted to the US invasion of Venezuela.

After the US attacked Venezuela and abducted its President Maduro, Beijing imposed a ban on many US products and its banks sped up the process of shifting to Yuan instead of dollars for trade. Xi Jinping warned that if the situation didn’t improve, US companies would face increased curbs. As a result, firms doing business with China saw their shares plunge on Wall Street.

Russia on the other hand started ‘repositioning’ its deadliest weapons and its strongest nuclear submarines near Venezuela. Despite being bogged down by internal strife, Iran has already threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, hackers attacked electricity, communications, transportation networks and hospitals in some US cities. The US blamed it on China, which it denied.

Before the proposed meeting with the US secretary of state Marco Rubio, the Danish defence ministry gave a sensational statement. According to the defence spokesperson, troops have been ordered to shoot any attackers who set foot on Greenland, asking questions later. The Trump administration is planning to offer heavy compensation to Greenland residents in lieu of their wealth. This is a new version of the divide and rule policy.

If that were not enough, Trump has cleared the way—through a bill—to impose tariffs of up to 500% on any country buying Russian oil. The move is widely seen aimed at India, China and Brazil.

The US has pulled out from 66 international treaties including the Solar Alliance. Trump has often called the United Nations and its welfare organizations an unnecessary waste of resources. He has also shown total disregard for international norms.

Just a year ago, all this was unthinkable. But we are witnessing something unbelievable. No one can predict Trump’s next move and how the world will react to it. We are moving from a string of small conflicts to a bigger conflagration.

Is Trump oblivious to reality? Doesn’t he know that China can go to any extent to save its $62.5 billion investment in Venezuela? In Latin America, Russian and Chinese interests are being threatened. This is leading to strange new alliances.

Take the Paris Declaration of 6 January. In an accord between Ukraine and the European Union (EU), France, Britain and others pledged to safeguard Ukraine from any future Russian attack by providing them a security shield. They pledged that after the ceasefire comes into force they would station their armies in Ukraine.

As expected, Moscow’s reaction was quick and sharp. Russia said it would not tolerate any European or NATO military presence on Ukrainian soil and would not hesitate to attack any such move. Also, cracks started appearing in European unity as Hungary raised its voice against the EU-Ukraine deal. It’s clear that ideological divide is deepening in beleaguered Europe.

We need to look at India too. Last week, Pakistan and Bangladesh air force chiefs met and decided that Rawalpindi’s security apparatus will not only provide training but also give Bangladesh JF-17 fighter jets. This fighter jet is the product of Pakistan-China collaboration. Bangladesh’s entry in the equation creates new complications.

Let me remind you of Muhammad Yunus’s statement he gave in Beijing. He spoke not only of cutting off India’s ‘Chicken’s Neck’ corridor, but of isolating the entire North-East. Egged on by China, Bangladesh said it intended to impose a 10-20% tariff on Indian cotton. Bangladesh is the biggest importer of Indian cotton. If the tariffs are imposed it will create fresh challenges for our economy already reeling under the impact of the US tariff.

This is the first time when both China and the US are simultaneously trying to encircle India, though the motives are different. Our old friend Russia is not in a position to help us for long. Will India try to wriggle out of the encirclement by opening its market for the Chinese companies? External affairs minister S. Jaishankar’s midweek visit to Paris and meeting with President Macron have sent encouraging signals. We too will have to ‘reposition’ ourselves in the rapidly changing world. It is heartening to note that New Delhi is treading the path nimbly and playing its limited cards astutely.

Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.